Household Migration Decisions and Climate Variables of Nenets Reindeer Herders in Northern Siberia (Yamal Peninsula), 2001-2022

Nenets reindeer pastoralists on the Yamal Peninsula of the Russian Arctic have demonstrated success in dealing with rapidly changing climatic conditions and the growing built environment associated with the natural gas industry. We pair our observations of a set of 28 Nenets households with hydrometeorological data to better understand the challenges of reindeer nomadism in this time of unprecedented change. We assembled a data set based on our ethnographic work with reindeer herding households beginning in 2001 through 2022, following 28 households at irregular intervals. The source of these data include surveys, participant observation, and digital communication. For this analysis we extracted information and coded variables for: reindeer herd size, migration distances, locations of summer and winter camps, annual frequency of camp movement, changes in migration patterns, and reasons for choice of migration route. These data were combined with relevant weather parameters derived from the ERA5 reanalysis data product for the immediate areas (30 kilometer (km) grid) surrounding summer and winter camps. We conducted a Bayesian logistic regression using the brms package in R Statistical Software (v4.1.2) analyzing factors contributing to ‘change’ or ‘no change’ in migration routes. Five ERA5 climate variables representing summer heating and winter warming and rain on snow (ROS) events were z-score normalized. Year of observation was treated as a factor. Posterior distribution of climate variables showed no discernable effects on household migration decisions.

俄罗斯北极地区亚马尔半岛（Yamal Peninsula）的涅涅茨人（Nenets）驯鹿牧民，在应对快速变化的气候条件以及与天然气工业相关的日益扩张的建成环境方面展现出了良好的应对成效。我们将针对28户涅涅茨家庭的观察结果与水文气象数据相结合，以期更好地理解这一前所未有的变革时期内，驯鹿游牧所面临的诸多挑战。本数据集基于2001年至2022年间与驯鹿牧养家庭开展的民族志研究构建而成，我们以非固定间隔对这28户家庭进行了追踪调研。本数据集的信息来源包括问卷调查、参与式观察以及数字通信记录。本次分析中，我们提取了相关信息并对以下变量进行编码：驯鹿种群规模、迁徙距离、夏营地与冬营地的位置、年度营地移动频次、迁徙模式的变化，以及选择迁徙路线的原因。我们将上述数据与覆盖夏、冬营地周边30公里网格范围的ERA5再分析数据集（ERA5 reanalysis data product）中的相关气象参数进行了整合。我们使用R统计软件（v4.1.2）中的brms包开展贝叶斯逻辑回归分析，以探究影响迁徙路线‘改变’或‘未改变’的各类因素。5个表征夏季增温、冬季增温以及雪面降雨（rain on snow，ROS）事件的ERA5气候变量经过了z分数标准化处理。观测年份被设定为分类变量。气候变量的后验分布结果显示，其并未对牧民家庭的迁徙决策产生可识别的影响。