Climate model projections of extreme physical conditions in Alaskan waters, 2006-2080

The project provides information on the probable frequency and magnitude of extreme physical oceanographic events in Alaskan waters during the next 50 years. The analysis will consider separately three different habitats: the Gulf of Alaska, southeast Bering Sea shelf and Aleutian Islands. The individual parameters of interest for each region will be those that have been identified, or have been postulated, to be crucial to marine ecosystem productivity and composition. The projections will be based on the simulations carried out with global climate models for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). A multi-model ensemble approach will be used towards the development of robust estimates of probability density functions (pdfs) on decadal time scales. The project builds on the investigators’ previous expertise in ecosystem/climate studies and the evaluation of climate models for the North Pacific and high-latitude regions.

本项目提供了未来50年内阿拉斯加海域极端物理海洋事件的可能发生频率与强度数据。本次分析将分别考量三类不同生境：阿拉斯加湾、白令海东南部陆架与阿留申群岛。各研究区域的核心关注参数，为已被证实或经推测认定的、对海洋生态系统生产力与群落组成至关重要的参数。本次预测将基于政府间气候变化专门委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change，IPCC）第五次评估报告（Fifth Assessment Report，AR5）所采用的全球气候模式模拟结果开展。研究将采用多模式集合方法，以构建年代际尺度下概率密度函数（probability density functions，pdfs）的稳健估算值。本项目依托研究团队此前在生态系统与气候研究，以及北太平洋及高纬度区域气候模式评估领域的专业专长。