Elements for a political economy of the reforms in Lula Government

ABSTRACT Under the hypothesis that structural reforms are positive for the economy, it is argued that, in a government of the “right”, there exists stable political economy equilibrium: some reforms are made and the economy has a median performance. In a government of the “left”, such median equilibrium is unstable. A situation of double equilibria is characterized: the government either succeeds fully or it fails miserably. The conclusion is that the success of Lula’s government will depend on the result of a race between the drop of his popularity, on one hand, and the improvement of the economy, on the other.

摘要：基于“结构性改革对经济具有积极作用”的假说，本文提出，右翼政府执政场景下存在稳定的政治经济均衡：政府将推行部分结构性改革，经济将呈现中等发展绩效；而左翼政府执政场景下，该类中等均衡并不稳定，此时呈现双重均衡状态——政府要么取得全面成功，要么遭遇彻底失败。本文最终结论为：卢拉政府的施政成败，将取决于其支持率下滑与经济改善二者间的博弈结果。