Ecophysiological variation across a forest-ecotone gradient produces divergent climate change vulnerability within species

Climate change related risks and impacts on ectotherms will be mediated by habitats and their influence on local thermal environments. While many studies have documented morphological and genetic aspects of niche divergence across habitats, few have examined thermal performance across such gradients and directly linked this variation to contemporary climate change impacts. In this study, we quantified variation in thermal performance across a gradient from forest to gallery forest-savanna mosaic in Cameroon for a skink species (Trachylepis affinis) known to be diverging genetically and morphologically across that habitat gradient. Based on these results, we then applied a mechanistic modelling approach (NicheMapR) to project changes in potential activity, as constrained by thermal performance, in response to climate change. As a complimentary approach, we also compared mechanistic projections with climate-driven changes in habitat suitability based on species distribution models of fore...

气候变化相关风险及其对变温动物（ectotherms）的影响，将由栖息地及其对局部热环境的调控作用所介导。尽管已有诸多研究探讨了不同栖息地间生态位分化的形态学与遗传学特征，但鲜有研究考察此类梯度上的热表现，并将这种变异直接与当代气候变化的影响建立关联。本研究以喀麦隆境内一条从森林到河岸林-稀树草原镶嵌体的栖息地梯度为研究对象，针对在该栖息地梯度上已被证实存在遗传与形态分化的石龙子物种（Trachylepis affinis），量化了其热表现的变异情况。基于上述研究结果，本研究随后采用机理建模方法（NicheMapR），以热表现为约束条件，预测了气候变化背景下物种潜在活动的变化。作为补充分析手段，本研究还基于物种分布模型（原文未完整表述，收尾为of fore...），将机理模型的预测结果与气候变化驱动的栖息地适宜性变化进行了对比。