Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2015

The June edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2015-16, which updates the outlook ABARES released in March 2015. \r\n\r\n In addition to commodity forecasts, this publication also includes boxes about the Australian sugar industry; the beef cattle industry in South America; demand and supply of sorghum in China; reforms to dairy support policies in the European Union; and El Nino and agricultural production. \r\n\r\n Commodity forecasts \r\n• Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $41.8 billion in 2015-16, compared with an estimated $42.4 billion in 2014-15. \r\n• This would be around 10 per cent higher than the average of $38 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms. \r\n• Agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2015-16 include coarse grains (up by 6 per cent), dairy (2 per cent), lamb (2 per cent), live sheep (6 percent), wool (5 per cent) and sugar (5 per cent). \r\n• These forecast increases are expected to be more than offset by forecast falls in export earnings for beef and veal (4 per cent), wheat (5 per cent), canola (5 per cent), cotton (33 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (4 per cent) and mutton (13 per cent). \r\n• Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 6.3 per cent to around $1.6 billion in 2015-16, after increasing by an estimated 13.9 per cent to $1.5 billion in 2014-15. \r\n• The index of unit export returns for Australian farm exports is forecast to rise by 2.5 per cent in 2015-16, following an estimated rise of 6.0 per cent in 2014-15. This forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects the effect of an assumed lower Australian dollar. \r\n• Higher export prices, in Australian dollar terms, are forecast for beef and veal, wool, barley, wine, lamb, canola, live feeder/slaughter cattle, rock lobster, mutton and dairy products in 2015-16. In contrast, export prices of wheat and sugar are forecast to decline. \r\n• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 3.1 per cent to around $53.7 billion in 2015-16, following an estimated increase of 2.1 per cent to $52.1 billion in 2014-15. At this forecast level, the gross value of farm production in 2015-16 would be around 9 per cent higher than the average of $49.1 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms. \r\n• The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 5.2 per cent to $27.2 billion in 2015-16, following an estimated increase of 13.1 per cent in 2014-15. The forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects expected higher farmgate prices for beef cattle, lamb, sheep and wool, more than offsetting a forecast decline of 4.1 per cent in the volume index of livestock production in 2015-16 under the assumption of herd and flock rebuilding in the latter half of 2015-16. \r\n• The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 0.9 per cent to $26.5 billion in 2015-16, following an estimated decrease of 6.8 per cent in 2014-15. The forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects an expected increase of 1.4 per cent in the volume index of crop production. \r\n• The volume index of total farm production is forecast to fall by 1.5 per cent in 2015-16, following an estimated decline of 0.7 per cent in 2014-15. \r\n\r\n Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts \r\n• In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, world economic growth is assumed to be 3.4 per cent in 2015 and 3.6 per cent in 2016. \r\n• In Australia, economic growth is assumed to average 2.7 per cent in 2015-16, compared with 2.5 per cent in 2014-15. \r\n• The Australian dollar is assumed to average around US76 cents in 2015-16, around 10 per cent lower than the average of US84 cents in 2014-15. \r\n\r\n El Nino and agricultural production \r\n\r\n• The Bureau of Meteorology advised that the El Nino in the tropical Pacific continues to strengthen. All international climate models surveyed indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain above El Nino thresholds through the coming southern winter and into spring. \r\n• The impact of an El Nino event on Australian agricultural production is not uniform and is difficult to predict. While an El Nino event is often, but not always, associated with reduced rainfall in eastern Australia, the timing of rainfall can have a significant effect on crop and pasture production. \r\n

《农业大宗商品》（Agricultural commodities）2015年6月刊收录了澳大利亚农业与资源经济科学局（ABARES）对2015-2016财年澳大利亚核心农业大宗商品的最新展望，该内容更新了该局2015年3月发布的往期展望报告。

除大宗商品预测内容外，本期出版物还包含多个专题专栏，涉及澳大利亚蔗糖产业、南美肉牛产业、中国高粱供需格局、欧盟乳制品支持政策改革，以及厄尔尼诺现象与农业生产。

大宗商品预测
• 2015-2016财年，澳大利亚农业大宗商品出口收入预计约为418亿澳元，相较2014-2015财年预估的424亿澳元有所下滑。
• 按名义价格计算，该数值将较2009-2010至2014-2015财年五年间380亿澳元的平均水平高出约10%。
• 2015-2016财年出口收入预计增长的农业大宗商品包括：粗粮谷物（增长6%）、乳制品（2%）、羔羊肉（2%）、活羊出口（6%）、羊毛（5%）及蔗糖（5%）。
• 上述品类的预计增长将被以下品类的出口收入下滑大幅抵消：牛肉及小牛肉（4%）、小麦（5%）、油菜籽（5%）、棉花（33%）、育肥/屠宰活牛（4%）及绵羊肉（13%）。
• 2014-2015财年渔产品出口收入预估增长13.9%至15亿澳元，2015-2016财年预计将再增长6.3%至约16亿澳元。
• 2014-2015财年澳大利亚农业出口单位出口回报指数预估增长6.0%，2015-2016财年该指数预计增长2.5%，此次增长主要得益于澳元贬值的假设前提。
• 2015-2016财年，按澳元计价的出口价格预计上涨的品类包括牛肉及小牛肉、羊毛、大麦、葡萄酒、羔羊肉、油菜籽、育肥/屠宰活牛、岩龙虾、绵羊肉及乳制品；与之相反，小麦及蔗糖的出口价格预计下滑。
• 2014-2015财年农业生产总值预估增长2.1%至521亿澳元，2015-2016财年预计增长3.1%至约537亿澳元。按名义价格计算，该数值将较2009-2010至2014-2015财年五年间491亿澳元的平均水平高出约9%。
• 2014-2015财年畜牧业产值预估增长13.1%，2015-2016财年预计增长约5.2%至272亿澳元。此次预计增长主要源于肉牛、羔羊肉、绵羊及羊毛的农场收购价上涨，该涨幅足以抵消2015-2016财年畜牧生产数量指数预计4.1%的下滑——该下滑基于2015-2016财年下半年畜群与羊群恢复重建的假设。
• 2014-2015财年农作物产值预估下滑6.8%，2015-2016财年预计增长0.9%至265亿澳元。此次预计增长主要源于农作物生产数量指数预计增长1.4%。
• 2014-2015财年农业总生产数量指数预估下滑0.7%，2015-2016财年预计下滑1.5%。

本次大宗商品预测所基于的经济假设
• 在编制本次农业大宗商品预测报告时，假设2015年全球经济增长率为3.4%，2016年为3.6%。
• 澳大利亚国内2015-2016财年经济增长率预计平均为2.7%，相较2014-2015财年的2.5%有所提升。
• 2015-2016财年澳元平均汇率预计约为76美分，较2014-2015财年84美分的平均水平低约10%。

厄尔尼诺现象与农业生产
• 澳大利亚气象局（Bureau of Meteorology）指出，热带太平洋海域的厄尔尼诺现象仍在持续增强。所有受访的国际气候模型均显示，在未来南半球冬季至春季期间，热带太平洋海温将维持在厄尔尼诺阈值以上。
• 厄尔尼诺事件对澳大利亚农业生产的影响并不统一，且难以预测。尽管厄尔尼诺事件通常（但并非总是）与澳大利亚东部地区降雨减少相关，但降雨时机会对作物与牧草生产产生显著影响。