Climate-driven habitat suitability and future range dynamics of tree-defoliating invasive paropsine beetles

This dataset accompanies the manuscript “Climate‑driven habitat suitability and future range dynamics of tree‑defoliating invasive paropsine beetles” It includes raw environmental predictor variables (ASCII format) and derived modelling outputs for nine invasive paropsine beetle species that pose significant risks to broadleaved plantation forestry in New Zealand. Habitat suitability was modelled under baseline conditions and future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585) for mid‑century (2041-2070) and end‑century (2071-2100). The R code used for data preparation, multicollinearity testing, spatial thinning, bias file creation, background point estimation, ecological niche model evaluation, and True Skill Statistic (TSS) calculation is provided in the file “Data_preparation_tuning_TSS_for_SDM_analysis.Rmd.” Boundary files include a New Zealand‑only shapefile and a combined New Zealand–Australia administrative boundary, both used for clipping environmental rasters during analysis. The tabular dataset (Compiled_results.xlsx) contains eight sheets summarising species‑specific information for New Zealand’s paropsine beetles, the full set of environmental variables considered, retained variables following multicollinearity filtering, optimised parameter settings, model accuracy metrics, suitable habitat area under baseline and future scenarios, overlap analyses, key contributing variables, and climate‑driven change detection. A folder titled “Final Maps” contains end‑user map products in PDF format. Raw occurrence records from New Zealand and Australia are not included due to privacy restrictions associated with a subset of locations sourced from the New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries and the Bioeconomy Science Institute Forest Health Database. However, mapped representations of these occurrences are provided in Figure 2 of Final Maps folder.