Thurgau_2003

Within the project, a six week travel survey has been conducted among 230 persons from 99 households in Frauenfeld and the surrounding areas in Canton Thurgau from August until December 2003. The design built on the questionnaire used in the German project Mobidrive, but developed the set of questions further. All trip destinations of the survey have been geocoded. Moreover, route alternatives for private motorised transport and public transport have been calculated. Moreover, the collected data has been compared with the National Travel Survey 2000 (Mikrozensus zum Verkehrsverhalten 2000), whereas differences in terms of sociodemographic characteristics of the respondents and particularly their travel behaviour couldn't be observed except for an higher proportion of GA and Halbtax ownership. For example, the average trip frequency per person and day is almost the same. In order to check for possible fatigue effects of the amount of reported trips, several GLM (Generalised Linear Model) and poisson regression models have been estimated besides descriptive analysis. No fatigue effects could be observed in the data set. The continuous support to the respondents and the increasing routine of the self responsible reporting of the respondents were consequently sufficient to restrain potential fatigue effects in the multi-week, longitudinal travel survey. Besides descriptive analysis of the data set, the focus has been on analysis of temporal stability and variability of travel behaviour by hazard models. The analyses of the variability and of the rhythms as well as that of the innovation have revealed that travel behaviour is highly conditioned by habits and routines. Nevertheless, new trip destinations are added continuously, particularly for leisure travel. The majority of trips have been planned at least one or more days in advance. Moreover, it could be shown that the rhythms and therefore the temporal structure are partly dependent on the socio-demographic characteristics of the respondents, although it is just one determinant within the demand structure. The activities themselves can be divided into groups with daily, bi-daily and weekly rhythms and without a temporal structure. In addition, the spatial dimension and distribution of trip destinations as well as the extent of activity spaces over the reporting period has been analysed through confidence ellipses, a two-dimensional version of the well-known confidence interval, and kernel density estimates of activity density. The data base generated within the project is an important prerequisite to better understandand model the complex connection of transport supply, activity planning and execution as well as destination, mode and route choice. With this knowledge it is possible to better assess the effects of measures, particularly those which have a direct impact on daily routines.

本项目于2003年8月至12月期间，在瑞士图尔高州（Canton Thurgau）弗劳恩费尔德（Frauenfeld）及周边区域的99户家庭共230名受访者中开展了为期六周的出行调查。本次调查的问卷设计基于德国Mobidrive项目所使用的问卷框架，并对题项设置进行了进一步优化拓展。调查收录的全部出行目的地均已完成地理编码。此外，研究团队还针对私人机动车出行与公共交通出行，计算得到多条可选路径。研究团队将本次调查采集的数据与2000年全国出行调查（Mikrozensus zum Verkehrsverhalten 2000）开展对比分析，结果显示：除GA通票与Halbtax半价卡的持有比例更高外，受访者的社会人口学特征及出行行为均未出现显著差异，例如受访者人均单日平均出行频次几乎一致。为检验受访者因填报出行次数过多可能产生的疲劳效应，研究团队在描述性分析之外，还构建并估计了多个广义线性模型（Generalised Linear Model, GLM）与泊松回归模型。分析结果表明，本数据集未观测到显著的疲劳效应。得益于对受访者的持续支持与引导，以及受访者自主填报流程的日益熟练，本次为期六周的纵向出行调查中潜在的疲劳效应得到了有效抑制。除对数据集开展描述性分析外，本研究还聚焦于利用风险模型（hazard models）分析出行行为的时间稳定性与变异性。针对出行行为变异性、出行节律及出行创新性的分析结果显示，出行行为在很大程度上受制于出行习惯与日常惯例。尽管如此，受访者仍会持续新增出行目的地，其中休闲出行的新增情况尤为突出。绝大多数出行均会提前至少一天或多天进行规划。研究还证实，出行节律即时间结构在一定程度上取决于受访者的社会人口学特征，尽管这仅为出行需求结构中的一项影响因素。出行活动本身可划分为四类：具有每日、每两日或每周节律的活动，以及无明确时间结构的活动。此外，研究团队通过置信椭圆（二维形式的经典置信区间）与活动密度核密度估计方法，分析了出行目的地的空间维度与分布特征，以及报告期内活动空间的覆盖范围。本项目生成的数据集为深入理解并建模交通供给、活动规划与执行、目的地选择、出行方式选择及路径选择之间的复杂关联提供了重要前提。依托该数据集的分析结果，可更精准地评估各类交通管控措施的实施效果，尤其是那些直接影响日常出行惯例的措施。