EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DETERMINANTS OF ENTRY IN THE BRAZILIAN CEMENT INDUSTRY

ABSTRACT The cement industry is a classic example of a concentrated-homogeneous industry, where entry is difficult. Despite that, there was an increase in the number of entrants in the Brazilian cement industry in recent years. The purpose of the present work is to identify the main factors that impacted regional entry decisions in the Brazilian cement market from 2003 to 2012. Another purpose is to explore possible causes for the incumbents' decision to accommodate new entry in these regions. Other studies that analyze the cement industry (Salvo, 2010; Miller & Osborne, 2014; Zeidan & Resende, 2009, 2010; La Cour & Møllgaard, 2003), have not been focused on entry. The present work adds to the academic literature the behavior of Brazilian firms in concentrated market structures by focusing on and analisis of the entry in these markets. The main considered factors are: consumption, consumption growth, transportation cost, number of active firms, number of plants, and regional characteristics, in the period from 2003 to 2012. A logit model is used to estimate the impact of these factors on the likelihood of entry and incumbents' expansion. An exploratory analysis based on case discussion is also conducted on an attempt to explain the incumbents' behavior. The results indicate that in addition to regional characteristics, a high level of consumption, and a low market concentration - measured by the number of active firms or the number of existing plants by region - are the conditions that most significantly favor entry. The incumbents' expansion decision, on the other hand, is most strongly correlated with the potential for consumption growth, allowing entry to occur in the Brazilian regions with high levels of consumption but low levels of growth.

摘要 水泥行业是典型的集中同质型产业，进入门槛较高。尽管如此，近年来巴西水泥行业的新进入者数量却有所攀升。本研究旨在识别2003至2012年间影响巴西水泥市场区域进入决策的核心动因，并探讨在位企业选择容纳区域新进入者的潜在原因。现有针对水泥行业的相关研究（Salvo, 2010; Miller & Osborne, 2014; Zeidan & Resende, 2009, 2010; La Cour & Møllgaard, 2003）均未聚焦于企业进入行为。本研究通过聚焦巴西水泥市场的企业进入行为展开分析，为集中型市场结构下巴西企业的经营行为相关学术文献补充了新的研究内容。本次研究选取的核心影响因素包括2003至2012年期间的区域水泥消费量、消费增速、运输成本、活跃企业数量、生产工厂数量以及区域特征。本研究采用Logit模型（Logit Model）评估上述因素对企业进入概率以及在位企业扩张行为的影响，同时还开展了基于案例讨论的探索性分析，以解释在位企业的行为决策逻辑。研究结果显示，除区域特征外，较高的区域消费量以及以区域活跃企业数量或现有生产工厂数量衡量的较低市场集中度，是最显著促进企业进入的条件。而就在位企业的扩张决策而言，其与消费增长潜力的相关性最强，这使得巴西区域市场在消费量较高但增速较低的情况下也可能出现企业进入行为。