长江上游生态环境和社会经济条件研究与评价

该项目纳入人口一资源一经济一环境大系统的总框架中进行全面系统分析与论证。提供了本区各自然要素及各有关项目的分布、面积、类型、特征与区划等300余万字的资料与340多幅系统图件， 共提交27项系列成果， 为本区防护林体系建设达到总体优化提供了科学依据。还运用数理经济和系统工程的理论与方法， 构造出了复杂的非确定性的梯级资源时空开发配置数学模型体系， 从而提出了本区各县防护林体系建设前景的定量指标。该成果以生态经济学的理论为指导， 采用对应分析法与星座图法进行了生态经济类型的划分， 提出长江上游防护林体系分类系统、森林发展潜力度、生态经济位和难易度等概念， 为防护林体系的科学布局提供了依据。对本区的水土流失规律、分布与森林水文效应现状等生态环境问题进行了评价。对土壤侵蚀的潜在危险性做了进一步的解释， 提出了相应的计算公式及水土保持效益指标等。该成果丰富和发展了森林生态效益评价的方法与内容。

This project is conducted under the overall framework of the population-resource-economy-environment mega-system for comprehensive and systematic analysis and demonstration. It provides over 3 million words of data covering the distribution, area, type, characteristics and regionalization of various natural elements and relevant items in the study area, as well as more than 340 systematic maps. A total of 27 series of achievements have been submitted, providing scientific basis for achieving overall optimization of the shelterbelt system construction in this region. Furthermore, by applying the theories and methods of mathematical economics and systems engineering, this project constructs a complex stochastic hierarchical mathematical model system for spatio-temporal development and allocation of resources, and puts forward quantitative indicators for the construction prospects of the shelterbelt system in each county of the study area. Guided by ecological economics theory, this achievement uses correspondence analysis and constellation diagram method to classify eco-economic types, and proposes concepts including the classification system of the upper Yangtze River shelterbelt system, forest development potential, eco-economic niche and implementation difficulty, providing a basis for the scientific layout of the shelterbelt system. It evaluates eco-environmental issues such as the law and spatial distribution of soil and water loss, and the current status of forest hydrological effects in the study area. It further elaborates on the potential risk of soil erosion, and puts forward corresponding calculation formulas and soil and water conservation benefit indicators. This achievement enriches and develops the methods and contents of forest ecological benefit evaluation.