What Do the Leading Indicators Lead?
收藏ICPSR2000-01-01 更新2026-04-16 收录
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资源简介：
The authors find that the composite leading index (CLI) is useful for forecasting gross national product (GNP), both in a sample and an out-of-sample real-time exercise. They propose a nonlinear specification in which cyclical shifts of the CLI precede those in GNP. However, the authors find that better forecasts are provided by a simple linear relation between current GNP growth along with an error-correction term corresponding to the previous quarter's logarithmic difference between the level of the CLI and the level of GNP.
提供机构：
University of California at San Diego
创建时间：
2000-01-01
