Data from: Matching habitat choice promotes species persistence under climate change

Species may survive under contemporary climate change by either shifting their range or adapting locally to the warmer conditions. Theoretical and empirical studies recently underlined that dispersal, the central mechanism behind these responses, may depend on the match between an individuals’ phenotype and local environment. Such matching habitat choice is expected to induce an adaptive gene flow, but it now remains to be studied whether this local process could promote species’ responses to climate change. Here, we investigate this by developing an individual-based model including either random dispersal or temperature-dependent matching habitat choice. We monitored population composition and distribution through space and time under climate change. Relative to random dispersal, matching habitat choice induced an adaptive gene flow that lessened spatial range loss during climate warming by improving populations' viability within the range (i.e. limiting range fragmentation) and by facilitating colonization of new habitats at the cold margin. The model even predicted in some cases range contraction under random dispersal but range expansion under optimal matching habitat choice. These benefits of matching habitat choice for population persistence mostly resulted from adaptive immigration decision and were greater for populations with larger dispersal distance and higher emigration probability. We also found that environmental stochasticity resulted in suboptimal matching habitat choice, decreasing the benefits of this dispersal mode under climate change. However population persistence was still better under suboptimal matching habitat choice than under random dispersal. Our results highlight the urgent need to implement more realistic mechanisms of dispersal such as matching habitat choice into models predicting the impacts of ongoing climate change on biodiversity.

物种在当代气候变化背景下的存续，可通过两种路径实现：一是调整其分布范围，二是在本地适应更温暖的环境条件。近期的理论与实证研究均强调，作为上述响应核心机制的扩散（dispersal），其效能取决于个体表型（phenotype）与本地环境的匹配程度。这种匹配性生境选择（matching habitat choice）被预期可诱导适应性基因流（adaptive gene flow），但目前仍有待探究：这一本地生态过程能否助力物种应对气候变化。本研究通过构建包含随机扩散与温度依赖型匹配性生境选择的基于个体的模型（individual-based model），对该问题展开系统性探究。我们在气候变化情境下，监测了种群组成与分布在空间与时间维度上的动态变化。相较于随机扩散策略，匹配性生境选择所介导的适应性基因流，可通过提升分布区内种群的生存能力（即限制分布区破碎化）、促进冷边缘新生境的定殖，有效缓解气候变暖过程中的空间分布范围损失。该模型甚至预测：在部分场景中，随机扩散会引发分布区收缩，而最优匹配性生境选择则会推动分布区扩张。匹配性生境选择对种群存续的这些增益，主要源于适应性的迁入决策，且当种群的扩散距离更大、迁出概率（emigration probability）更高时，该增益效果更为显著。我们还发现，环境随机性（environmental stochasticity）会导致匹配性生境选择偏离最优状态，进而削弱该扩散模式在气候变化下的优势。不过，相较于随机扩散，即便为次优的匹配性生境选择，仍能提升种群的存续能力。本研究结果凸显，在预测当前气候变化对生物多样性的影响时，亟需将匹配性生境选择这类更贴合现实的扩散机制纳入预测模型之中。