The Spill-back and Spillover Effects of US Monetary Policy: Evidence on an International Cost Channel

We find that an unanticipated tightening of US monetary policy tends to raise US import prices. This empirical spill-back pattern differs from the predictions of typical open-economy macro models. We also document a new empirical "spillover" effect: import prices of other countries also rise

我们发现，美国货币政策的未预期紧缩往往会推高美国进口价格。这一实证溢出反馈模式与典型开放经济宏观模型的预测结果并不一致。我们还实证揭示了一种全新的“溢出”效应：其他国家的进口价格同样会出现上涨。