Implications of the Russian Invasion on the Logistical Competition for Corn Shipments from the United States and Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine disrupted the grain flows from that region and worldwide. These changes are critical due to the war’s influence on logistical costs, routes and capacities. As a result of the invasion, Ukraine has evolved from having some of the lowest logistical costs in the world to having the highest logistical cost. Logistics are critical for international competitiveness in commodities, and due to the invasion, these functions have been severely affected. Essential features for a logistical competition include internal logistical functions and costs, quality, port capacity and ocean shipping costs, each compounded by seasonal demands. This paper’s purpose is to analyze the effects of the Russian invasion on the logistical functions and the costs for corn exports from Ukraine and its competitors using an optimized Monte Carlo simulation model. The findings indicate that before the invasion, Ukraine had logistical advantages for shipments to the European Union (EU) and was highly competitive in Indonesia and China; the United States had a logistical cost advantage over Ukraine to serve China, South Korea (from the U.S. Gulf) and Japan (from the Pacific Northwest (PNW)). The changes due to the invasion are substantial. Most important is the radical increase in shipping costs from Ukraine, reduced port capacity and export supplies. However, concurrent with the invasion were changes in some critical trade and marketing policies, thus influencing the international competition for corn.

俄罗斯对乌克兰的军事入侵中断了该地区乃至全球的谷物流通。此次变局影响深远，战争对物流成本、运输路线及运力均造成了重大冲击。受此次入侵影响，乌克兰的物流成本已从全球最低水平之一跃升至全球最高水平。物流是大宗商品国际竞争力的核心支撑，而受此次入侵事件影响，乌克兰的物流运作已遭到严重破坏。物流竞争的核心要素包括内部物流运作与成本、服务质量、港口运力以及海运成本，且上述各项均受季节性需求的叠加影响。本研究旨在通过优化后的蒙特卡洛（Monte Carlo）模拟模型，分析俄罗斯入侵事件对乌克兰及其竞争对手的玉米出口物流运作与成本所产生的影响。研究结果显示，在入侵发生前，乌克兰在向欧盟（European Union, EU）运输玉米方面具备物流优势，并在印度尼西亚与中国市场拥有极强的竞争力；美国则在对华、对韩（从美国墨西哥湾沿岸（U.S. Gulf）港口出货）以及对日（从美国太平洋西北岸（Pacific Northwest, PNW）出货）的玉米出口中，相较于乌克兰拥有物流成本优势。此次入侵引发的变动幅度极大，其中最显著的变化包括乌克兰境内出货成本的大幅攀升、港口运力的下降以及出口供货量的缩减。但与此同时，部分关键贸易与营销政策也发生了调整，进而对全球玉米出口的国际竞争格局产生了影响。