Price Adjustment of Oil Palm and Palm Oil in Thailand to the World Price of the Palm Oil Market

The objectives of this study are to analyze: (1) the effects from the change of palm oil price in the world market to the prices of oil palm and palm oil in Thailand, and (2) the adjustment of oil palm and palm oil prices in Thailand to the change of the price of palm oil in the world market using monthly time series from January 2008 to September 2019. The statistics consist of the stationary test using the ADF unit root, the long-run equilibrium test using the cointegration, and the short-run adjustment to the equilibrium using the error correction model, respectively. The empirical findings show that farm-gate price is the most affected by the change of palm oil price in the world market, followed by wholesale, export, and retail prices, respectively. In line with the adjustment of the prices of oil palm and palm oil in Thailand to the change in the world palm oil price, it is found that farm-gate price has adjusted in the short-term to return the equilibrium with the highest speed at 27.883%, followed by wholesale price 22.710%, exporting price 18.792%, and retail price 15.658%, respectively.

本研究的目标为分析以下两项内容：(1) 全球市场棕榈油价格变动对泰国油棕与棕榈油价格的影响；(2) 基于2008年1月至2019年9月的月度时间序列数据，探究泰国油棕及棕榈油价格对全球棕榈油价格变动的调整机制。本研究采用的统计分析方法依次为：利用ADF单位根检验进行平稳性检验、通过协整分析开展长期均衡关系检验，以及借助误差修正模型实现短期向均衡状态的调整效应分析。实证结果表明，农户收购价（farm-gate price）受全球棕榈油价格变动的影响程度最高，其后依次为批发价、出口价与零售价。针对泰国油棕及棕榈油价格对全球棕榈油价格变动的调整机制，研究发现农户收购价的短期均衡回归速度最快，调整幅度达27.883%，其次分别为批发价22.710%、出口价18.792%与零售价15.658%。