Draft - WAMSI 2 - Kimberley Node - 1.2.1 - Modelling the movement and spatial distribution of humpback whales in the nearshore waters of the Kimberley

Management of humpback whales in the waters of the Kimberley is hampered by a lack of integrated approaches to data acquisition and analysis. Extensive aerial and vessel survey and some tagging programs have been conducted over the last decade, predominantly focussed on providing estimates of seasonal abundance and distribution of humpback whales. There has been limited attempt to use these data to quantify the spatial distribution and identify critical habitat across the Kimberley; information that is urgently required to better inform management in an ecosystem that faces challenges of warming environments, massive industrial development and rapid growth of humpback whale populations (Hedley et al. 2009). This project will directly address this need by collating and synthesising all existing data on distribution, abundance and movement patterns of humpback whales and associated environmental data collected across the north-west and in the Kimberley. We will use state-of-the-art analytical approaches to characterise and understand the movement behaviour of humpback whales and the environmental context in which they occur. We will use this synthesis to identify research gaps and where possible to construct predictive models of the present and future use of the Kimberley region by humpback whales. The overarching goal of this project is to develop a better understanding of how humpback whales use the Kimberley including the environmental factors driving this pattern. The spatial and temporal distribution of young calves will be a key focus to better define critical habitat used as calving areas.

金伯利（Kimberley）海域座头鲸（humpback whale）的管理工作因缺乏一体化的数据采集与分析方法而受阻。过去十年间，研究人员已开展大规模航空与船舶调查及部分标记项目，核心目标为估算座头鲸的季节丰度与分布范围。目前仅开展了少量尝试，利用此类数据量化金伯利海域的空间分布并识别关键栖息地；而该类信息对于在面临气候变暖、大规模工业开发以及座头鲸种群快速增长等多重挑战的生态系统中优化管理决策而言，是迫切亟需的（Hedley等，2009）。本项目将通过整理并综合西北海域及金伯利地区已收集的所有座头鲸分布、丰度与活动模式相关数据，以及配套环境数据，直接满足这一需求。我们将采用前沿分析方法，解析并阐明座头鲸的活动行为及其所处的环境背景。我们将利用本次数据综合成果，明确现有研究空白，并在条件允许的情况下，构建座头鲸当前及未来利用金伯利区域的预测模型。本项目的总体目标是深化对座头鲸如何利用金伯利海域的认知，包括阐明驱动其活动模式的环境因素。幼崽的时空分布将作为核心研究重点，以更精准地界定作为产仔区的关键栖息地。