Factors associated with municipal corruption on union resources transfers

Abstract This article assesses the tendency to municipal corruption based on counting models, which have as response variables the findings recorded in 1600 audit reports of the Controladoria-Geral da União, CGU, referring to the Brazilian municipalities. The sensitivities of these irregularities were estimated an tested as a function of the volume of resources inspected, to their stage of development, to the role of social control, to its demographic characteristics, to the contagion effect among neighboring municipalities, to the second mandate of the mayor and his political party. The results have shown that the municipalities with medium and severe findings are those that receive a high percentage of resource transfers, they also have weak social control and a low level of municipal development, they are not sparsely populated and have neighboring municipalities with corruption problems. Sixteen medium irregularities and six serious irregularities are found of every R$ 100 million of resources received by a municipality.

摘要 本文基于计数模型评估市政腐败的发生倾向，以巴西联邦总监察署（Controladoria-Geral da União, CGU）针对巴西各市政辖区出具的1600份审计报告中记录的核查结果作为模型的因变量。研究对上述各类违规行为的发生敏感度进行了估算与检验，考察的影响因素涵盖被核查资源总量、市政发展阶段、社会监督的作用、人口统计特征、邻市间的腐败传染效应、市长连任情况及其所属政党的影响。研究结果显示，存在中度及严重违规问题的市政辖区，往往获得较高比例的资源转移拨款，同时具备社会监督薄弱、市政发展水平较低、并非人口稀少，以及周边市政存在腐败问题的特征。平均而言，某市政辖区每获得1亿巴西雷亚尔（R$）的资源拨款，即会出现16起中度违规与6起严重违规问题。