Disconnects between ecological theory and data in phenological mismatch research

AbstractClimate change may lead to phenological mismatches, where the timing of critical events between interacting species becomes de-synchronized, with potential negative consequences. Evidence documenting negative impacts on fitness is mixed. The Cushing match-mismatch hypothesis, the most common hypothesis underlying these studies, offers testable assumptions and predictions to determine consequences of phenological mismatch when combined with a pre-climate change baseline. Here, we highlight how improved approaches could rapidly advance mechanistic understanding. We find that currently no study has collected the data required to test this hypothesis well, and 71% of studies fail to define a baseline. Experiments that clearly link timing to fitness and test extremes, integration across approaches, and null models would aid robust predictions of shifts with climate change., MethodsWe located papers relating phenological data from trophic interactions to fitness and/or performance of the consumer and/or the resource by conducting keyword searches in ISI Web of Science published up to June 2017. Keywords included phenolog* AND mismatch* OR synchron* AND interact* AND (fitness* OR performance*). If more than one measure of phenology was included, we chose the one used by the authors to calculate mismatch and examine its impact on performance. Our final review included 42 studies with 45 pair-wise species interactions (3 studies had 2 interactions). Based on the type of data collected for the consumer and resource, we classified studies as life history (i.e. one that collected data at the individual level) or one that collected data at the population or community (i.e., across species). To determine whether studies had the potential to define pre-climate change baselines, we measured the study’s time span and years of data based on the years where phenology data was available for both the consumer and resource, and consumer performance data was available., Usage notesEach observation is an individual pair-wise species interaction.

摘要
气候变化可能引发物候失配（phenological mismatch），即交互物种间关键事件的时序发生解耦，进而带来潜在负面影响。现有关于其对适合度（fitness）产生负面影响的研究证据尚存争议。库欣匹配-失配假说（Cushing match-mismatch hypothesis）是此类研究最常用的理论框架，结合气候变化前的本底基准数据，可为物候失配的影响提供可检验的假设与预测模型。本研究探讨了如何通过优化研究方法，快速推进对物候失配机制的认知。我们发现，目前尚无研究收集到足以完善检验该假说所需的完整数据，且71%的研究未能明确气候变化前的基准线。能够明确将时序与适合度关联并检验极端情况的实验、多方法整合研究以及零模型（null models），将有助于更可靠地预测气候变化下的物候变化趋势。

研究方法
本研究通过在截至2017年6月的ISI Web of Science（科学网）数据库中开展关键词检索，筛选出将营养级交互的物候数据与消费者、资源的适合度和/或表现相关联的文献。检索关键词设置为：phenolog* AND mismatch* OR synchron* AND interact* AND (fitness* OR performance*)。若文献包含多种物候度量指标，我们选取作者用于计算失配并检验其对表现影响的指标。最终纳入本综述的研究共42项，涉及45个物候交互的物种对（其中3项研究包含2组物种交互）。根据针对消费者与资源收集的数据类型，我们将研究分为两类：生活史类研究（即收集个体水平数据的研究）以及种群或群落水平研究（即跨物种收集数据的研究）。为判断研究是否可明确气候变化前的基准线，我们基于消费者与资源的物候数据均可用、且消费者表现数据可用的年份，统计了研究的时间跨度与有效数据年限。

使用说明
每条观测数据对应一组独立的物种两两交互关系。