Rape in the 21st Century: Old Patterns, New Behaviours and Emerging Trends, 2000-2002

<P>Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner.</P><br>Home Office statistics show a continuing decline in the rape conviction rate over the last three decades, with the most recent figures at an all time low of just over 5 per cent. A number of reforms have been put in place but are yet to deliver the hoped for outcomes. Attrition is a complex, multi-factorial process, meaning that successful policy and practice interventions must be informed by analysis of the issues operating at multiple levels of the criminal justice process. <br>
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<i>Rape in the 21st Century: Old Patterns, New Behaviours and Emerging Trends, 2000-2002</i> investigated whether particular combinations of factors might be associated with being targeted for sexual assault, as well as specific layers of attrition, including victimisation/targeting, reporting to the police and case outcomes. Using regression analysis, whether and how explicitly stereotypical notions about rape are predictive of attrition was also explored. The project was based on an existing dataset of 3,527 cases reported to three sexual assault referral centres (SARCs) and three police comparison sites without access to a SARC between late 2000 and end 2002. Stereotypical views about rape were found to affect decision making particularly at the earliest stages of the process, namely reporting and the police investigation, although they were less influential than anticipated for the small proportion of cases that reached court. The findings also suggest that victim vulnerabilities play a crucial role in attrition, particularly where: victims are aged under 18; the rape takes place in the context of domestic violence; the rape is alcohol related; and mental health issues are present. Making previous allegations also appears to be significant. These factors influence not only decisions by complainants to withdraw allegations but also how police conduct the investigation.<br><br><B>Main Topics</B>:<BR><br>The main topics include:<ul><li>demographics of the rape victim and rapist</li><li>circumstances around the rape</li><li>circumstances around the reporting of the rape</li></ul>

<p>本摘要版权归英国数据服务中心（UK Data Service）及数据采集版权所有者所有。</p><br>英国内政部统计数据显示，过去三十年间，强奸案定罪率持续下滑，最新数据仅略高于5%，创下历史新低。尽管已推出多项改革措施，但尚未达到预期效果。强奸案件的司法流失是一个复杂的多因素过程，这意味着有效的政策与实务干预，必须基于对刑事司法流程各层级相关问题的分析。<br><br><i>《21世纪的强奸案：旧模式、新行为与新兴趋势（2000-2002）》</i>旨在探究特定因素组合是否与性侵犯受害目标相关，同时分析特定层级的案件流失情况，包括受害/目标锁定、向警方报案以及案件最终结果。该研究还通过回归分析，探讨了对强奸的明确刻板印象是否以及如何能够预测案件流失。本项目基于2000年末至2002年末期间的现有数据集，涵盖了向3家性侵犯转介中心（Sexual Assault Referral Centres, SARCs）报案的案件，以及3家未接入性侵犯转介中心的警方对比站点的相关案件，总计3527起。研究发现，对强奸的刻板印象会对司法流程的早期决策产生显著影响，即报案阶段与警方调查阶段；但对于进入庭审的少数案件而言，这类刻板印象的影响程度低于预期。研究结果还表明，受害者的脆弱性在案件流失中发挥着关键作用，具体情形包括：受害者年龄未满18周岁、强奸案发生于家庭暴力场景中、强奸与酒精相关、以及受害者存在心理健康问题。此外，过往曾提出性侵指控的情况也具有显著影响。上述因素不仅会影响报案人撤回指控的决定，还会左右警方的调查开展方式。<br><br><b>核心研究主题</b>：<br><br>主要研究主题包括：<ul><li>强奸受害者与施害者的人口统计学特征</li><li>强奸案发生时的具体情境</li><li>强奸案报案相关的具体情境</li></ul>