Supplementary material from "Possible fates of the dispersion of SARS-COV-2 in the Mexican context"

The program is done in a Wolfram Mathematica notebook (11.3.0.0) and is self-contained up to September 7, which is the day of the last actualization of the data. The notebook is separated into sections and consists of two main parts: data and model. The data part contains the tables of data of the pandemic. Successive actualization should be done by hand. The model part contains four programs (identical) embedded into a Manipulate command that facilitates the use of the equations when doing the fit of the data. The difference among the programs is the number of susceptible individuals and, therefore, the transmission constants ke, ki, and kv. The other parameters are equal and had remained fixed since July. Model sections are indicated by colors and the number of susceptible individuals. Sections including summaries of the plots are also included for comparison. The fit up to this day may be done by increasing the original number of susceptible individuals from 185 thousand to 900 thousand, 1.5millions, 3millions, and 4.5 million. Each case is treated separately. This implies that the rates ki, ke and kv should decrease. Data fixed in the Manipulate keyboard originally corresponded to those allowing the best fit until May 19 2020. We have prevented that some of those values can change with time. The new version of the code has a data actualization until September 7. The last improvements of the fits only required modification of the initial estimation of the total number of susceptible individuals. Transmission rate constants should be varied by the last decimal value since the system of equations is very sensitive to those values.

本程序基于Wolfram Mathematica笔记本（版本11.3.0.0）编写，截至2020年9月7日（即数据最后一次更新当日）即可独立完整运行。该笔记本按章节划分，包含两大核心模块：数据模块与模型模块。
数据模块收录了本次大流行的相关数据表，后续的数据更新需手动完成。
模型模块包含四段完全相同的程序，嵌入于Manipulate命令中，可在数据拟合过程中便捷调用相关方程。四段程序的差异仅在于易感个体（susceptible individuals）的初始数量，由此对应的传播常数k_e、k_i与k_v也各不相同；其余参数均保持一致，且自7月起便未再修改。
模型章节以颜色与易感个体数量进行标注，同时附带绘图汇总章节以供对比参考。截至本次更新当日，可通过将初始易感个体数量从18.5万分别调整至90万、150万、300万与450万来完成拟合，每种情况均单独处理，这意味着k_i、k_e与k_v的取值需要相应下调。
Manipulate控制面板中原本固定的参数，对应了截至2020年5月19日时拟合效果最优的取值。我们已限制部分参数随时间变动。本代码的新版本已将数据更新至2020年9月7日。本次拟合的最终优化仅需调整易感个体总数的初始估计值即可完成。由于方程组对传播速率常数极为敏感，仅需微调这些参数的末位小数即可完成修正。