Data from: The predictive adaptive response: modeling the life history evolution of the butterfly, Bicyclus anynana, in seasonal environments.

A predictive adaptive response (PAR) is a type of developmental plasticity where the response to an environmental cue is not immediately advantageous but instead is later in life. The PAR is a way for organisms to maximize fitness in varying environments. Insects living in seasonal environments are valuable model systems for testing the existence and form of PAR. Previous manipulations of the larval and the adult environments of the butterfly Bicyclus anynana have shown that individuals that were food restricted during the larval stage coped better with forced flight during the adult stage compared to those with optimal conditions in the larval stage. Here, we describe a state-dependent energy allocation model, which we use to test whether such a response to food restriction could be adaptive in nature where this butterfly exhibits seasonal cycles. The results from the model confirm the responses obtained in our previous experimental work and show how such an outcome was facilitated by resource allocation patterns to the thorax during the pupal stage. We conclude that for B. anynana, early-stage cues can direct development toward a better adapted phenotype later in life and, therefore, that a PAR has evolved in this species.

预测性适应性反应（Predictive Adaptive Response，PAR）是一类发育可塑性现象，指生物体对环境线索的响应并非即刻展现适应性优势，而是在生命后期才得以体现。PAR是生物体在多变环境中最大化适合度的一种生存策略。栖息于季节性环境中的昆虫是检验PAR存在与表现形式的理想模式系统。此前针对斑眼蝶Bicyclus anynana的幼虫与成虫环境操控实验显示，幼虫期遭受食物限制的个体，相较于幼虫期处于最优进食条件的个体，在成虫期应对强制飞行的表现更为出色。本研究构建了一种状态依赖型能量分配模型，用以检验该眼蝶在其季节性生存的自然环境中，这种对食物限制的响应是否具备适应性。模型结果验证了我们此前实验工作中得到的响应模式，并揭示了蛹期胸部资源分配模式如何促成了这一实验结果。我们的研究结论表明，对于B. anynana而言，生命早期的环境线索可引导发育方向，使个体在生命后期形成更适配环境的表型，因此该物种已演化出PAR。