Is Voting Skin-Deep? Estimating the Effect of Candidate Ballot Photographs on Election Outcomes

In the Northern Territory, Australia, ballot papers for territory elections depict candidates’ photographs. We exploit this unusual electoral feature by looking at the effect that candidates’ beauty and skin color has on voting patterns. Our results for beauty are mixed, but we find strong evidence that skin color matters. In electorates with a small Indigenous population, lighter-skinned candidates receive more votes, while in electorates with a high number of Indigenous people, darker-skinned candidates are rewarded at the ballot box. The relationship between skin color and electoral performance is stronger for challengers than incumbents. We explain this with a model in which voters use skin color as a proxy for some underlying characteristic which they value only to the extent that they share the trait.

在澳大利亚北领地（Northern Territory）的领地选举中，选票会印制候选人的照片。本研究利用这一非常规选举特征，探究候选人颜值与肤色对选民投票模式的影响。针对颜值的研究结果存在分歧，但我们发现肤色对选举结果存在显著影响的有力证据。在原住民人口较少的选区，肤色较浅的候选人得票率更高；而在原住民人口较多的选区，肤色较深的候选人则能在投票中获得更多支持。相较于现任候选人，挑战者候选人的肤色与选举表现之间的关联更为显著。我们通过一个模型对此进行解释：选民将肤色作为某种潜在特质的代理变量，仅当自身拥有该特质时，才会重视该特质。