Macroeconomic determinants of investment in Brazil: an empirical analysis for the period 1996-2012

ABSTRACT This paper aims at analysing the macroeconomic determinants of the aggregate private investment in the Brazilian economy from 1996 to 2012. The paper presents the main investment theories, contrasting neoclassical and Keynesian models, reviews the previous empirical literature and provides potentially new evidence on the topic. Our results suggest that the variables usually associated with Keynesian models, such as credit, demand and expectations, have better explained the private investment dynamic in Brazil. Finally, we have also explored relationships between our results and the contemporary debate on Brazil's economic growth performance.

摘要 本研究旨在剖析1996年至2012年巴西经济总体私人投资的宏观经济决定因素。本文系统梳理了主流投资理论，对比了新古典主义与凯恩斯主义两大模型框架，回顾了既往相关实证研究成果，并为该议题提供了颇具潜力的新实证依据。研究结果表明，通常与凯恩斯主义模型挂钩的信贷、需求与预期等变量，能够更有效地解释巴西私人投资的动态演变路径。最后，本文还进一步探讨了本研究结论与当前学界关于巴西经济增长表现的热议议题之间的内在关联。