External Threat and Nuclear Preferences: Micro-Level Insights from the Iran-Israel Confrontation

The impact of external threats on nuclear proliferation preferences has been extensively discussed in the literature, primarily through state-level analyses and qualitative case studies. This research note shifts the focus to the individual level, examining how external threats influence nuclear preferences using novel survey data from Iranian citizens collected before and during the April 2024 Iran-Israel confrontation. This real-world geopolitical crisis offers a rare opportunity to explore how exposure to a conflict between a nuclear-armed and a non-nuclear state shapes individual attitudes toward nuclear weapons. Employing a mixed-methods approach, the study integrates quantitative analysis of pre- and post-confrontation survey responses with a thematic analysis of open-ended explanations for supporting nuclear acquisition. The findings reveal a significant rise in strong support for nuclear weapons following the confrontation, driven predominantly by security concerns and the perceived need for deterrence. In contrast, other motivations, such as prestige, progress, or rights, remained relatively stable. By bridging state-level theories with micro-level evidence, this study provides novel insights into how external threats in high-stakes conflicts shape individual nuclear preferences, with important implications for both policy and scholarly research.