Northern cod spawning sites in 2015

A decade ago, in 2015, a paper in this journal heralded the “comeback” of
Canada’s iconic Northern cod some 25 years after its collapse in the early
1990s. In this paper, the stock status determined by current and past
models and recent management is reviewed, 10 years later. Summarily,
surplus production and growth have stalled, some years being negative,
although the stall point biomass is controversial (and well below
historical norms). Structural equation models indicate the main correlate
of production is spawning stock biomass (positive), whose correlates are
abundances of capelin (Mallotus villosus) (positive) and harp seals
(Pagophilus groenlandicus) (negative), with net production (enabling SSB
growth) further reduced by fisheries. Reductions in the SSB thought
necessary to avoid impairing recruitment, from 1.3 to 0.25 million t, have
led to increases in harvest allocations and reopened commercial Canadian
and foreign fisheries, despite advice by the Department of Fisheries and
Oceans and independent science to keep removals low. Management objectives
are opaque; if rebuilding, then SSB growth must remain the main objective,
otherwise the Northern cod will be restrained to a shadow of its
historical abundance and socio-economic and cultural importance.