Scenarios of nitrogen and phosphorus loads to the sea (2015-2054) - (v. Apr.2024)

This spatial dataset provides annual estimates of nutrient loads (Total Nitrogen and Total Phosphorus) at the outlets of European river basins, using the GREEN model (Grizzetti et al. 2025; version April 2024) for the period 2015-2054, under two scenarios:

(1) Reference - REF: This scenario estimates changes in nutrient loads due to climate change, assuming nutrient input sources remain the same as in 2020. Climate model predictions are simulated by CCLM4-8-17, driven by MPI-ESM-LR.

(2) Dynamic Baseline - DB: This scenario estimates changes in nutrient loads due to both climate change and existing EU policies (as of 2024). Nutrient input sources are reduced according to EU legislation requirements (see Grizzetti et al. 2025 for details). Climate model predictions are simulated by CCLM4-8-17, driven by MPI-ESM-LR.

The dataset includes the total load and apportionment of the load to different sources, as estimated by the GREEN model. These sources include:

(i) Agricultural sources (mineral and organic fertilization, crop and soil fixation);
(ii) Atmospheric deposition;
(iii) Scattered dwellings;
(iv) Point sources (domestic and industrial discharges).

The nutrient loads to the sea account for the reduction of nutrient sources through attenuation processes that occur in land, river reaches, and lakes.

Additionally, the dataset provides the average and standard deviation of Total Nitrogen and Total Phosphorus loads simulated by the GREEN model using 11 climate model predictions under the RCP4.5 emissions pathway, for both the REF and DB scenarios (see Grizzetti et al. 2025 for details).

The river basin hydrological data model is based on the Catchment Characterisation and Modelling approach (Vogt et al. 2007; https://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset/fe1878e8-7541-4c66-8453-afdae7469221).