Dynamic Model (IDM) V18.0: 2026 Election Forecasts

The Irawadi Dynamic Model (IDM) Version 18.0 is a structuralist forecasting framework designed to predict the vote share of right-populist (A3) parties in national elections. Moving beyond traditional polling-based snapshots, this research utilizes V-Dem Institutional Trust Index (ITI_v2) data and macroeconomic indicators (GDP growth) to model the relationship between institutional decay and populist success.
​The primary purpose of this pre-registration is to "lock" the model's coefficients and predictions for the 2026 election cycle (including the Netherlands, France, Israel, Sweden, Italy, and Denmark) to ensure transparency and prevent post-hoc bias. The expected outcome is a rigorous evaluation of the model's "Institutional Decay" mechanism, specifically testing whether institutional stability acts as a reliable floor for populist surges or if cultural-demand factors (e.g., migration salience) create systematic forecast errors in high-salience elections.