Is a business owner a better mayor?

Abstract This study analyzes the demographic characteristics of elected mayors in Brazil, emphasizing those who are business owners. The research observes whether mayors with a background as business owners obtain better performance in office, which is evaluated through the municipality’s fiscal situation and the IDEB (basic education development index) score. The research was conducted in two parts. The first part used logistic regression and sought to identify the profile of elected mayors. The second part analyzed whether mayors who were business owners obtained a superior performance using the multilevel regression model. The study observed that the majority of mayors had a background as business owners, but this characteristic was not significant to explain electoral success. The results of the second part did not find a correlation between mayors who are business owners and their performance. The only demographic characteristic relevant to explain differences in municipalities’ fiscal results was the mayor’s age. Therefore, mayors who were business owners did not present results different from those who have other backgrounds, which allows us to assume that this group does not have better skills and judgments. One of the limitations of this study is that the characteristic of being a business owner was obtained by self-declaration.摘要 本研究针对巴西当选市长的人口统计学特征展开分析，重点关注其中具备企业主背景的群体。本研究旨在考察具备企业主从业背景的市长在任职期间是否能取得更优的施政表现，该表现通过所在市政辖区的财政状况与基础教育发展指数（IDEB）得分进行评估。本研究分为两个部分开展：第一部分采用逻辑回归（logistic regression）方法，旨在识别当选市长的群体特征；第二部分则运用多层回归模型（multilevel regression model），分析具备企业主背景的市长是否拥有更出色的施政表现。研究观察到，多数当选市长具备企业主背景，但该特征无法有效解释选举成功的结果。第二部分的研究结果并未发现具备企业主背景的市长与其施政表现之间存在相关性。唯一能够解释市政辖区财政绩效差异的人口统计学特征为市长的年龄。由此可见，具备企业主背景的市长其施政结果与其他背景的市长并无显著差异，据此可推断该群体并不具备更优异的执政能力与决策判断力。本研究存在一项局限性：企业主背景这一特征是通过自我申报的方式获取的。