Probabilistic projections of granular energy technology diffusion in Europe - solar photovoltaics, wind power, biogases, heat pumps, and electric vehicles

The probabilistic projections are part of the work:

Nik Zielonka, Evelina Trutnevyte, Probabilities of reaching required diffusion of granular energy technologies in European countries, iScience 28, 111825, (2025), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2025.111825

Please cite the article together with the Zenodo link when you use the data.

The provided data files contain the estimated probabilistic projections for European countries on the projected diffusion of solar photovoltaics (PV), offshore wind power, onshore wind power, biogases, heat pumps, battery electric vehicles (BEVs), hybrid vehicles, and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) for the indicated years:

Version 2023-2050: Projections for the years 2023-2050 as presented by Zielonka and Trutnevyte (2025), iScience.Version 2024-2050: Projections for the years 2024-2050, using the latest data of 2023.

Acknowledgements:

This work received funding from (i) the partnership between University of Geneva and Services Industriels de Genève, (ii) the Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research, and Innovation SEFRI for the project IAM COMPACT “Expanding Integrated Assessment Modelling: Comprehensive and Comprehensible Science for Sustainable, Co-Created Climate Action” (Project no. 101056306), (iii) the Swiss Federal Office of Energy as part of the SWEET consortium SURE, (iv) and the Swiss National Science Foundation Eccellenza Grant as part of the project "Accuracy of long-range national energy projections" (Grant no. 186834). The computations were performed at the University of Geneva using Baobab High Performance Computing service. The authors bear sole responsibility for the conclusions and the results.