Supplementary material

Physiognomic and climatic transformations have caused economic, and environmental issues, such as the recent water crisis in the Meia Ponte River Basin. To mitigate these impacts and assess land use and cover conditions, remote sensing tools have been employed. This study aimed to evaluate the current and future land use and soil cover in tributary micro-basins of the Meia Ponte River between 1986 and 2041, providing reference data for preservation and conservation measures of this important basin for the state of Goiás, Brazil. For future projections, georeferenced images from the Landsat 8 and 9 satellites were used, combined with class associations and spatial variables. The classifications were based on the IBGE Technical Manual (2013) and assessed using random kappa and overall accuracy methods. The results indicated variations in geographical and economic patterns across the Serra, Formiga, and Mata micro-basins. There was a significant increase in pasture, cultivation, and urban activities in the predicted scenarios, leading to a reduction in forest cover and water bodies. Most of the territory designated for agropastoral systems was consolidated according to Law 12,651/2012, with the remaining vegetation confined to genetic and geographic islands, mainly near watercourses. The decrease in flow or the disappearance of drainage courses is due to anthropogenic pressures, highlighting the need for water management. These findings emphasize the urgency of conserving local species diversity and implementing priority environmental restoration measures to mitigate the local and regional water crisis.