The relationship between economic growth and CO₂ emissions

This paper examines the evolving interplay between carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, urbanization, and energy consumption in Uzbekistan by applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing methodology. As the country advances in its transition to a market-oriented economy, environmental sustainability has become an increasingly pressing issue, driven by rapid urban expansion and growing energy needs. Using annual data spanning 1990–2022, the study assesses both long-term equilibrium relationships and short-term dynamics among the variables. The empirical results indicate a positive and statistically significant long-run impact of energy consumption on CO₂ emissions, reflecting Uzbekistan’s heavy dependence on fossil fuel–based energy sources. Urbanization is also found to exacerbate environmental pressures, with positive effects on emissions observed in both the short and long run. Moreover, economic growth contributes positively to emissions in the long term, underscoring the persistence of carbon-intensive production structures. Overall, the findings underscore the necessity of accelerating the transition toward sustainable energy systems, environmentally responsible urban planning, and deeper structural economic reforms. The study provides important policy-relevant insights to support Uzbekistan’s efforts to harmonize economic development with environmental sustainability, particularly in line with its international climate obligations.