Environmental correlates of breeding abundance and population change of Eurasian Curlew <i>Numenius arquata</i> in Britain

<b>Capsule:</b> Across Britain, breeding Eurasian Curlew <i>Numenius arquata</i> are less numerous and have shown greater population declines in areas with more arable farming, woodland cover and higher generalist predator abundance. <b>Aims:</b> We present the first national-scale analysis of the potential drivers of Curlew population change in Britain, which is needed to guide conservation action for this globally near-threatened, declining species. <b>Methods:</b> Breeding Bird Survey data and environmental predictors were used to model variation in Curlew abundance in 1995–99 and 2007–11, and population change between these periods. <b>Results:</b> Arable farming and woodland cover were negatively associated with Curlew abundance and population declines. Curlew abundance was positively associated with extent of protected area coverage and gamebird numbers. Abundance and population change were positively associated with cooler temperatures and higher summer rainfall, but negatively associated with numbers of generalist predators. <b>Conclusions:</b> We found support for the negative effects of intensive agriculture, forestry, increases in generalist predator populations and climate warming on Curlew abundance and population change. Effective site protection and measures to reduce generalist predator abundance may be important conservation measures, together with improving breeding habitat quality in the wider countryside.**核心研究概要**：在英国全境，繁殖期的欧亚白腰杓鹬（Eurasian Curlew，*Numenius arquata*）种群数量持续缩减，且在耕作农田占比更高、林地覆盖率更大以及广食性捕食者（generalist predator）种群密度更高的区域，其种群下降幅度更为显著。**研究目标**：本研究首次针对英国白腰杓鹬种群变化的潜在驱动因子开展全国尺度分析，以期为这一全球近危且种群持续下降的物种制定保护行动提供科学依据。**研究方法**：本研究采用繁殖鸟类调查数据与环境预测因子，对1995—1999年、2007—2011年两个时段的白腰杓鹬种群丰度变异，以及这两个时段间的种群动态变化开展建模分析。**研究结果**：耕作农田与林地覆盖率与白腰杓鹬种群丰度及种群下降幅度呈负相关关系；白腰杓鹬种群丰度则与保护区覆盖范围及猎禽种群数量呈正相关关系。此外，种群丰度与种群变化幅度与较低气温及夏季更高降雨量呈正相关，而与广食性捕食者种群数量呈负相关关系。**研究结论**：本研究证实，集约化农业、林业扩张、广食性捕食者种群增长以及气候变暖，均会对白腰杓鹬种群丰度及种群动态产生负面影响。有效的场地保护、降低广食性捕食者种群密度的措施，以及改善乡村开阔地带繁殖栖息地质量的相关手段，或可成为该物种重要的保护策略。