When can model-based estimates replace surveys of wildlife populations that span many discrete management units?

Monitoring widely distributed species on a budget presents challenges for the spatio-temporal allocation of survey effort. When there are multiple discrete units to monitor, survey alternatives such as model-based estimates can be useful to fill information-gaps but may not reliably reflect biological complexity and change. The spatio-temporal allocation of survey effort that minimizes uncertainty for the greatest number of units within a budget can help to ensure monitoring efforts are optimized.
We used aerial survey-based population estimates of moose (Alces alces) across 30 Wildlife Management Units (WMUs) in Ontario, Canada to parameterize simulated populations and test the performance of different monitoring scenarios in capturing WMU-specific annual variation and trends. Firstly, we tested scenarios that prioritized conducting a survey for a unit based on one of three management criteria: population state, population uncertainty, or number of years between surveys. Also incorpora...