Unstoppable climate change? The influence of fatalistic beliefs about climate change on behavioural change and willingness to pay cross-nationally

Although climate change is an urgent problem, behavioural and policy responses have not yet been sufficient to either reduce the volume of greenhouse gas emissions or adapt to a disrupted climate system. Significant efforts have been made to raise public awareness of the dangers posed by climate change. One reason why these efforts might not be sufficient is rooted in people’s need to feel efficacy to solve complex problems; the belief that climate change is unstoppable might thwart action even among the concerned. This paper tests for the effect of fatalistic beliefs on behavioural change and willingness to pay to address climate change using two cross-national surveys representing over 50,000 people in 48 nations. <b>Key policy insights</b>The perception that climate change poses a risk or danger increases the likelihood of behavioural change and willingness to pay to address climate change.The belief that climate change is unstoppable reduces the behavioural and policy response to climate change and moderates risk perception.Communicators and policy leaders should carefully frame climate change as a difficult, yet solvable, problem to circumvent fatalistic beliefs. The perception that climate change poses a risk or danger increases the likelihood of behavioural change and willingness to pay to address climate change. The belief that climate change is unstoppable reduces the behavioural and policy response to climate change and moderates risk perception. Communicators and policy leaders should carefully frame climate change as a difficult, yet solvable, problem to circumvent fatalistic beliefs.

尽管气候变化是一项紧迫的全球性议题，但当前的行为应对与政策举措仍未能有效削减温室气体排放总量，亦未能助力人类适应已遭扰动的气候系统。学界与社会各界已付出诸多努力，以提升公众对气候变化所带来危害的认知。此类举措未能充分发挥作用的原因之一，或源于人们对自身解决复杂问题的效能感需求；即便在已关注气候变化的群体中，"气候变化不可阻挡"的认知也可能阻碍其采取行动。本研究依托覆盖48个国家、逾5万名受访者的两项跨国调查，检验了宿命论信念对气候变化相关行为改变及支付意愿的影响。<b>关键政策洞察</b>认为气候变化构成风险或危害的认知，会提升人们采取行为改变、并为应对气候变化支付成本的可能性。认为气候变化不可阻挡的信念，则会削弱针对气候变化的行为与政策响应，并弱化风险感知的效应。传播者与政策制定者应审慎地将气候变化框架为"极具挑战但仍可解决"的问题，以规避宿命论信念的负面影响。认为气候变化构成风险或危害的认知，会提升人们采取行为改变、并为应对气候变化支付成本的可能性。认为气候变化不可阻挡的信念，则会削弱针对气候变化的行为与政策响应，并弱化风险感知的效应。传播者与政策制定者应审慎地将气候变化框架为"极具挑战但仍可解决"的问题，以规避宿命论信念的负面影响。