Do behavioral nudges in pre-populated tax forms affect compliance? Experimental evidence with real taxpayers 2013-2018

The excel file contains a row per subject who undertook the experiment. This includes the values they entered for each of the four elements of the main incentivised choice within the experiment, the treatment the subject was randomly allocated to, derived measures as to the nature of their compliant (or non-compliant) behaviour and timings associated with each of the stages of the experiment.There is additional data in relation to the classification of their behaviour in the experiment.The primary research questions were to see if compliance would be reduced in treatments were incorrect information was used to pre-populate tax forms compared to conditions of no or correct information and which, if any, of a series of prompts might be able to improve levels of compliance.<p>Good tax design and administration are central to the functioning of the economy. Taxes are important determinants of economic behaviour, and good implementation can significantly increase economic and social welfare. The role of the Tax Administration Research Centre is to deliver research that enhances tax policy and provides lasting benefit to the economy. There are many research tools that can contribute to this goal but the greatest success will be achieved by combining a range of research methodologies and disciplines.
The Centre will unite researchers from two institutions with distinguished reputations for research into tax administration and tax design. Complementary abilities and methodologies will be brought together to address a wide range of intersecting research projects. The research methodologies will include economic modelling, econometric analysis, experimentation, numerical simulation, and qualitative analysis. In undertaking its work the Centre will make extensive use of the HMRC/HMT Datalab to permit innovative empirical work to be undertaken.
Some examples of the research projects to be conducted at the Centre are:
Risk-based auditing and taxpayers' responses will investigate the reaction of taxpayers to audits, and how this will change the pattern of compliance behaviour. The project will study whether taxpayers learn about the audit strategy over time, and how a risk-based strategy should be updated to take this into account. The project will link with laboratory experiments on compliance and with research on the role of tax advisers. The results will increase the return on resources allocated to auditing.
Decomposing the elasticity of taxable income will determine how the response of individuals to taxes summarised by the "elasticity of taxable income" can be separated into the channels through which individuals respond (e.g. reduced work effort, increased pension contributions or charitable contributions, moving income abroad, taking income in other forms). The results will enable greater focus of tax interventions and improved design of tax structure.
Consequences of pre-population will study the implications of pre-populated tax returns for compliance. If the pre-populated form shows an income level below actual income this might convey an impression to the taxpayer that they can successfully evade. The research will implement an experiment that randomises the allocation of pre-populated returns. The outcome will advise on how best to proceed with the implementation of pre-population.
Large business (Intermediaries) relationship with HMRC will use qualitative depth interviews address the extent to which new initiatives have altered working practices in intermediary firms and their clients' businesses, the HMRC understanding of tax avoidance practices, and the appropriateness of current policy strategies currently. This will enhance understanding of the effects of HMRC operational policy and improve administration.
Understanding the determinants of customer experience will link HMRC survey data on customer experience with objective measures of service delivery standards, third-party information, and tax return data in Datalab. The linked data will be used to analyse the systematic determinants of subjective customer experience and will show which aspects of HMRC delivery generate a positive customer experience, and which do not.
The Centre will enhance tax administration and tax design. It has ambitious plans to become the leading international centre with a central role in research and in building research capability in tax analysis through the training of PhD students and training of research staff.</p>

本Excel文件每条记录对应一位参与实验的被试，包含被试在实验中核心激励选择任务的四项要素所填报的数值、被试被随机分配的实验处理组（treatment）、反映其合规（或不合规）行为特征的衍生指标，以及实验各阶段的时间记录。此外还包含实验中被试行为分类的相关额外数据。本研究的核心问题为：相较于未预填信息或预填正确信息的实验条件，当使用错误信息预填纳税申报表时，被试的合规率是否会下降；以及在一系列提示干预中，是否存在能够提升合规率的措施。

优良的税制设计与税收征管是经济体稳健运行的核心支撑。税收是影响个体经济行为的关键因素，而高效的税收征管落地能够显著提升经济与社会福利水平。税收征管研究中心（Tax Administration Research Centre）的使命在于开展助力完善税收政策、为经济体创造持久福祉的研究工作。实现这一目标的研究工具多种多样，但唯有融合多类研究方法与跨学科视角，方能取得最大成效。
本中心将汇聚来自两所顶尖税收征管与税制设计研究机构的科研人员，整合互补的研究能力与方法体系，以应对多领域交叉的各类研究课题。研究方法将涵盖经济建模、计量经济学分析、实验研究、数值模拟与定性分析。本中心在开展研究工作时，将充分利用HMRC/HMT数据实验室（HMRC/HMT Datalab）的资源，以支撑创新性实证研究的开展。

本中心的部分研究课题示例如下：
1. **基于风险的税务稽查与纳税人响应**：本课题将探究纳税人对税务稽查的行为反应，以及该反应如何改变其合规行为模式。研究将分析纳税人是否会随时间推移掌握稽查策略，并据此更新基于风险的稽查方案以适配相关情况。本课题将与合规行为实验室实验及税务顾问角色相关研究相结合，研究成果将提升税务稽查资源的投入回报率。
2. **应税收入弹性分解**：本课题将解析以"应税收入弹性（elasticity of taxable income）"衡量的个体税收响应行为，将其拆解为个体作出响应的具体路径（例如减少工作时长、增加养老金或慈善捐赠、将收入转移至境外、以其他形式获取收入等）。研究成果将助力精准制定税收干预政策，优化税制结构设计。
3. **预填申报的影响效应**：本课题将研究预填式纳税申报表对纳税人合规行为的影响。若预填申报表显示的收入水平低于实际收入，可能会让纳税人产生可成功逃税的误解。本研究将开展预填申报分配随机化的实验，研究结果将为预填申报制度的最优落地路径提供决策参考。
4. **大型企业（中介机构）与HMRC的合作关系**：本课题将通过定性深度访谈，探究新政策举措对中介机构及其客户企业的运营模式产生的影响程度，以及HMRC对避税行为的认知现状与当前政策策略的适用性。研究将增进对HMRC运营政策效应的理解，优化税收征管实践。
5. **纳税人服务体验影响因素解析**：本课题将把HMRC的纳税人服务体验调查数据，与HMRC/HMT数据实验室中服务交付标准的客观衡量指标、第三方信息及纳税申报数据进行关联整合。通过关联数据集，本研究将分析影响主观服务体验的系统性因素，明确HMRC服务交付环节中哪些维度能够带来正向服务体验，哪些则无法达成该效果。

本中心致力于推动税收征管与税制设计的发展，计划打造国际顶尖的税收研究机构，在税收分析研究领域发挥核心引领作用，并通过培养博士生与科研人员，提升税收分析领域的整体研究能力。