Avaliação de Impacto das Guardas Municipais Sobre a Criminalidade com o uso de Tratamentos Binários, Multivalorados e Contínuos

Abstract We evaluated whether the creation of Municipal Guards (GMs) improved the public safety indicators of the local governments that adopted them. Using municipal data, we tested several identification strategies based on the potential results model, focusing on binary treatments, discrete multivalued treatments and continuous treatments. The main results indicate that, in small and medium municipalities, having a GM with some years of activity may represent up to 30% fewer homicides than in their control group, which is equivalent to up to -4.8 deaths per 100 thousand inhabitants. On the contrary, the existence of GMs does not seem to impact property crimes.

摘要 本研究评估了设立市政警卫队（Municipal Guards, GMs）是否能改善采用该队伍的地方政府的公共安全指标。本研究借助市级层面数据，基于潜在结果模型构建了多种识别策略，重点覆盖二分类处理变量、离散多值处理变量与连续型处理变量三类场景。核心研究结果表明，在中小型市政辖区中，运营数年的市政警卫队可使凶杀案发生率较对照组最高降低30%，换算后相当于每十万居民中凶杀死亡人数最多减少4.8人。与之相对，市政警卫队的设立似乎并未对财产类犯罪产生显著影响。