Favoring recruitment as a conservation strategy to improve the resilience of long-lived reptile populations: insights from a population viability analysis

In long-lived species, although adult survival typically has the highest elasticity, temporal variations in less canalized demographic parameters are the main drivers of population dynamics. Targeting recruitment rates may thus be the most effective strategy to manage these species. We analyzed 1136 capture–recapture histories collected over 9 years in an isolated population of the critically endangered Lesser Antillean iguana, using a robust-design Pradel model to estimate adult survival and recruitment rates. From an adult population size estimated at 928 in 2013, we found a yearly decline of 4% over the 8-year period. As expected under the canalization hypothesis for a long-lived species, adult survival was high and constant, with little possibility for improvement, whereas the recruitment rate varied over time and likely drove the observed population decline. We then used a prospective perturbation analysis to explore whether managing the species’ immature cohorts would at least slo...