Appendix S1 - Future Declines of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England and Wales Could Counter the Burden of Population Ageing

Supplementary information. Text S1, Bayesian age, period and cohort model. Detailed description of the BAPC models. Text S1A, Random walk of first and second order. Description of the different type of parameters assumptions for the age, period and cohort effects. Text S1B, Estimation, prediction and comparison. Description of the methods to estimate BAPC models, how to compare between different models and how to compute projections into the future. Text S1C, BAPC model for CHD mortality in England and Wales. Specific methods and assumptions used for the CHD mortality BAPC model in England and Wales. Text S2, Mean absolute percent error. Description of the type of error measurement used to compare scenarios and models. Text S3, References. References used in the Supplementary information section. (DOCX)