Modelling consumer intakes of vegetable oils and fats

Vegetable oils and fats make up a significant part of the energy intake in typical European diets. However, their use as ingredients in a diverse range of different foods means that their consumption is often hidden, especially when oils and fats are used for cooking. As a result, there are no reliable estimates of the consumption of different vegetable oils and fats in the diet of European consumers for use in, for example, nutritional assessments or chemical risk assessments. We have developed an innovative model to estimate the consumption of vegetable oils and fats by European Union consumers using the European Union consumption databases and elements of probabilistic modelling. A key feature of the approach is the assessment of uncertainty in the modelling assumptions that can be used to build user confidence and to guide future development.