Pathways to positive scenarios for the Amazon forest in Pará state, Brazil

Abstract: Infrastructure projects and agriculture expansion are increasingly threatening forest conservation in Pará state (Brazil). It becomes necessary to address the implications of these activities on the Amazon complex socio-ecological system, considering both material and non-material aspects of Nature´s Contributions to People (NCP). Multiple studies developed future scenarios for the Amazon, but only a few have focused on discussing positive futures derived from policies and interventions based on conservation and human well-being. Here, we aim at understanding the drivers of forest cover change to produce positive scenarios for the future of the Amazon forest in Pará state. By using the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) conceptual framework, we identified as direct drivers of forest cover change: (i) roads construction; (ii) forest degradation; (iii) hydropower projects; (iv) urban expansion; (v) agriculture and pasture expansion; (vi) rural land occupation; (vii) mining; (viii) climate change. As indirect drivers we identified: (i) energy demand; (ii) population growth; (iii) land prices; (iv) commodity demand; (v) consumption behavior. The development of conservation strategies in the borders of deforested areas is needed given the high demand for Nature´s Contributions to People supply. We also propose policies to address the main drivers of forest cover change, influencing land management and consumption behavior in the state. At last, we envision future positive scenarios that would emerge from policy applications and sustainable actions. Based on our study, we discuss the importance of social learning for developing pathways leading to positive futures that consider the integrity and development of both ecological and social systems.

摘要：巴西帕拉州（Pará）的基础设施建设与农业扩张正日益威胁着当地的森林保护工作。有必要结合自然对人类的贡献（Nature´s Contributions to People，NCP）的物质与非物质层面，探讨此类活动对亚马孙复杂社会-生态系统造成的影响。现有多项研究已针对亚马孙地区构建了未来情景，但仅有少数研究聚焦于探讨基于保护与人类福祉的政策及干预措施所催生的积极未来。本研究旨在明晰森林覆盖变化的驱动因素，以构建帕拉州亚马孙森林的未来积极情景。本研究借助生物多样性和生态系统服务政府间科学政策平台（Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services，IPBES）的概念框架，识别出森林覆盖变化的直接驱动因素包括：（i）道路建设；（ii）森林退化；（iii）水电项目；（iv）城市扩张；（v）农业与牧场扩张；（vi）农村土地侵占；（vii）采矿活动；（viii）气候变化。间接驱动因素则包括：（i）能源需求；（ii）人口增长；（iii）土地价格；（iv）大宗商品需求；（v）消费行为。鉴于自然对人类的贡献的供给需求旺盛，有必要在森林砍伐区边缘制定保护策略。本研究还提出了针对森林覆盖变化主要驱动因素的政策方案，以影响该州的土地管理与消费行为。最后，我们构想了通过政策实施与可持续行动所催生的未来积极情景。基于本研究结果，我们探讨了社会学习对于构建兼顾生态系统与社会系统完整性与发展的积极未来路径的重要性。