Ukraine Interest Rate

The National Bank of Ukraine has decided to keep its policy rate at 15.5% to support foreign exchange stability and anchor inflation expectations, aiming to gradually reduce inflation to the 5% target. Inflation peaked in May and began to decline in June, though slightly above forecast due to adverse weather impacting food supply. Core inflation slowed faster than expected. The FX market remained stable, helped by previous rate hikes, while inflation expectations stayed largely controlled despite mixed signals. The NBU now forecasts inflation at 9.7% in 2025, 6.6% in 2026, and reaching 5% in 2027. Economic recovery continues, albeit slowly due to war impacts and poor weather. Real GDP is projected to grow 2.1% in 2025. Sustained external financial aid (USD 54 billion expected in 2025) remains key to macro stability. Risks include prolonged war, insufficient aid, and further damage to infrastructure. The NBU plans to keep tight monetary conditions until inflation sustainably declines. source: National Bank of Ukraine乌克兰国家银行（National Bank of Ukraine）决定将政策利率维持在15.5%，以支撑外汇稳定并锚定通胀预期，目标是逐步将通胀率降至5%的既定目标。通胀已于5月见顶并于6月开始回落，但受不利天气影响食品供应，通胀水平略高于此前预测。核心通胀回落速度快于预期。外汇市场在此前加息举措的助力下保持稳定，尽管市场信号喜忧参半，但通胀预期总体仍处于可控范围。乌克兰国家银行目前预计，2025年通胀率为9.7%，2026年为6.6%，并将于2027年达到5%的目标。经济复苏仍在持续，但受战争影响与恶劣天气拖累，复苏步伐较为缓慢。预计2025年实际国内生产总值（Real GDP）将增长2.1%。持续的外部金融援助（预计2025年规模将达540亿美元）仍是宏观经济稳定的关键支撑。当前面临的风险包括战争长期持续、援助不足以及基础设施进一步受损。乌克兰国家银行计划维持紧缩的货币政策环境，直至通胀实现可持续回落。数据来源：乌克兰国家银行