Data from: Long-term differences in extinction risk among the seven forms of rarity

Rarity is widely used to predict the vulnerability of species to extinction. Species can be rare in markedly different ways, but the relative impacts of these different forms of rarity on extinction risk are poorly known and cannot be determined through observations of species that are not yet extinct. The fossil record provides a valuable archive with which we can directly determine which aspects of rarity lead to the greatest risk. Previous paleontological analyses confirm that rarity is associated with extinction risk, but the relative contributions of different types of rarity to extinction risk remain unknown because their impacts have never been examined simultaneously. Here, we analyze a global database of fossil marine animals spanning the past 500 million years, examining differential extinction with respect to multiple rarity types within each geological stage. We observe systematic differences in extinction risk over time among marine genera classified according to their rarity. Geographic range played a primary role in determining extinction, and habitat breadth a secondary role, whereas local abundance had little effect. These results suggest that current reductions in geographic range size will lead to pronounced increases in long-term extinction risk even if local populations are relatively large at present.稀有性（Rarity）已被广泛用于预测物种面临灭绝的脆弱性。物种的稀有状态存在显著多样的表现形式，但目前学界对这些不同类型的稀有性对灭绝风险的相对影响仍知之甚少，且无法通过对尚未灭绝的物种的观测来确定该影响。化石记录为我们提供了宝贵的研究档案，借此可直接明确何种稀有性特征会带来最高的灭绝风险。此前的古生物学分析已证实稀有性与灭绝风险存在关联，但由于从未同时考察过不同类型稀有性的影响，其对灭绝风险的相对贡献仍不明确。本研究针对覆盖过去5亿年的全球海洋动物化石数据库展开分析，在每个地质阶段内，针对多种稀有性类型探究物种的差异化灭绝情况。我们观察到，依据稀有性特征划分的海洋属类，其灭绝风险随时间呈现出系统性差异。地理分布范围是决定灭绝风险的首要因素，栖息地广度次之，而本地种群丰度则几乎无影响。本研究结果表明，即便当前本地种群规模相对较大，当前地理分布范围的缩减仍会显著提升物种的长期灭绝风险。