Data from: The changing environment of conservation conflict: geese and farming in Scotland

1.Conflict between conservation objectives and human livelihoods is ubiquitous and can be highly damaging, but the processes generating it are poorly understood. Ecological elements are central to conservation conflict, and changes in their dynamics – for instance due to anthropogenic environmental change – are likely to influence the emergence of serious human-wildlife impacts and, consequently, social conflict.

2.We used mixed-effects models to examine the drivers of historic spatio-temporal dynamics in numbers of Greenland barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) on the Scottish island of Islay to identify the ecological processes that have shaped the environment in which conflict between goose conservation and agriculture has been triggered.

3.Barnacle goose numbers on Islay increased from 20,000 to 43,000 between 1987 and 2016. Over the same period, the area of improved grassland increased, the number of sheep decreased and the climate warmed.

4.Goose population growth was strongly linked to the increasing area of improved grassland, which provided geese with more high quality forage. Changing climatic conditions, particularly warming temperatures on Islay and breeding grounds in Greenland, have also boosted goose numbers.

5.As the goose population has grown, farms have supported geese more frequently and in larger numbers, with subsequent damaging effects. The creation of high-quality grassland appears to have largely driven damage by geese. Our analysis also reveals the drivers of spatial variation in goose impacts: geese were more likely to occur on farms closer to roosts and those with more improved grassland. However, as geese numbers have increased they have spread to previously less favoured farms.

6.Synthesis and applications. Our study demonstrates the primary role of habitat modification in the emergence of conflict between goose conservation and agriculture, alongside a secondary role of climate change. Our research illustrates the value of exploring socio-ecological history to understand the processes leading to conservation conflict. In doing so, we identify those elements that are more controllable, such as local habitat management, and less controllable, such as climate change, but which both need to be taken into account when managing conservation conflict.

1. 保护目标与人类生计之间的冲突普遍存在且往往造成严重危害，但其背后的形成机制却鲜为人知。生态要素是保护冲突的核心所在，而其动态变化——例如由人为环境变化引发的变化——可能会加剧严重的人兽冲突（human-wildlife conflict）问题，进而引发社会冲突。
2. 本研究采用混合效应模型（mixed-effects models），对苏格兰艾莱岛上的格陵兰白颊黑雁（Greenland barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis）种群数量的历史时空动态驱动因子展开分析，旨在明确塑造鹅类保护与农业冲突发生环境的生态过程。
3. 1987年至2016年间，艾莱岛上的白颊黑雁种群数量从2万只增长至4.3万只。同期，改良草地（improved grassland）面积持续扩张，绵羊存栏量逐步下降，区域气候亦呈现变暖趋势。
4. 黑雁种群增长与改良草地面积的扩张显著相关——后者为黑雁提供了更多高质量的觅食草料。气候变化，尤其是艾莱岛及格陵兰繁殖地的气温升高，同样推动了黑雁种群数量的增长。
5. 随着黑雁种群规模扩大，农场对黑雁的容纳频次与承载量均有所提升，随之而来的是一系列农业破坏影响。优质草地的营造似乎是黑雁造成破坏的核心驱动因素。本研究的分析还揭示了黑雁影响空间异质性的驱动因子：黑雁更倾向于栖息在距离夜栖地更近、改良草地面积更大的农场。然而随着种群数量增长，黑雁已扩散至此前受侵扰程度较低的农场。
6. 总结与应用
本研究证实，生境改造是鹅类保护与农业冲突产生的首要驱动因素，而气候变化则起到次要推动作用。本研究阐明了梳理社会-生态历史（socio-ecological history）对于理解保护冲突形成过程的重要价值。通过这一研究路径，我们明确了两类可调控性存在差异的因子：一类是可通过当地生境管理进行干预的可控因子，另一类是难以人为调控的气候变化因子；在开展保护冲突治理工作时，两类因子均需纳入综合考量范畴。