THE HISTORICAL PEAK OF THE RATE OF SURPLUS VALUE AND THE “NEW NORMAL” OF THE CHINESE ECONOMY: A POLITICAL ECONOMY ANALYSIS

ABSTRACT This paper reports homogenous series of the rate of surplus value for the Chinese economy over the period 1956-2015 with a Marxian approach. It finds that the rate of surplus value reached the historical peak of the whole period in 2008 and that the high profitability in the decade before the 2008 crisis had relied on the continuous growth in the rate of surplus value. It provides a time series analysis to show that the rising wage pressure and value composition of capitalhas restrained profitability since 2008. Thus, this paper interprets the so-called “new normal” of the Chinese economy as a stage of declining profitability that results mainly from the stagnant rate of surplus value and the rising value composition of capital.

摘要：本研究采用马克思主义分析方法，构建了1956至2015年中国经济剩余价值率（rate of surplus value）的同质时序序列。研究发现，中国经济的剩余价值率在2008年达到样本周期内的历史峰值，而2008年金融危机前十年的高利润率，实则依托于剩余价值率的持续增长。本文通过时序分析表明，自2008年起，不断攀升的工资压力与资本有机构成（value composition of capital）持续抑制了利润率水平。据此，本文将中国经济所谓的“新常态”解读为以剩余价值率停滞、资本有机构成抬升为主要成因的利润率下行阶段。