Integrating reproductive phenology in Ecological Niche Models changed the predicted future ranges of a marine invader

Aim: Phenology of a wide diversity of organisms has a dependency on climate, usually with reproductive periods beginning earlier in the year and lasting longer at lower latitudes. Temperature and day length are known environmental drivers of the reproductive timing of many species. Hence, reproductive phenology is sensitive to warming and is important to be considered for reliable predictions of species distributions. This is particularly relevant for rapidly spreading non-indigenous species (NIS). In this study, we forecast the future ranges of a NIS, the seaweed Sargassum muticum, including its reproductive phenology.

Location: Coastal areas of the Northern Hemisphere (Pacific and Atlantic oceans).

Methods: We used ecological niche modelling to predict the distribution of S. muticum under two scenarios forecasting limited (RCP 2.6) and severe (RCP 8.5) future climate changes. We then refined our predictions with a hybrid model using sea surface temperature constraints on reprodu...