中亚咸海流域农业水资源供给和开发利用潜力数据集（V1.0，2000-2099）

中亚咸海流域农业水资源供给和开发利用潜力数据集采用分布式流域水循环多过程耦合模拟手段，分别计算中亚主要流域子流域尺度的降水量和径流深，预估未来中亚农业水资源供给量。研究区域涉及额尔齐斯河、锡尔河和阿姆河三个主要流域，占中亚地区总面积的36%，共划分1100个子流域，构建考虑冰川积雪冻融过程的分布式水循环模型HEQM模型。模型历史气象数据驱动采用基于压缩感知在傅里叶系数域的气象数据融合方法，实现NECP和ECMWF数据融合，生产高时空分辨率（0.45度）的1901～2014年长序列日降水和气温数据；并利用全球径流数据库（GRDC）中年径流数据序列（含22个站点1940-2000年）对HEQM模型进行参数率定和验证，实现对研究区水资源变化的准确模拟；在此基础上，利用基于部门间影响模式比较计划（ISI-MIP）5个GCM模式日降雨和气温数据序列的中位数，构建未来气候序列并驱动率定好的HEQM模型，实现未来不同排放情景下流域农业水资源开发利用潜力的预估。数据提供了历史三个时间段2000s（2000-2004）、2010s（2005-2009）和2015s（2010-2014）、以及未来RCP4.5和RCP8.5两个排放情景两个时间段2040s（2040-2070）和2070s（2071-2099），空间分辨率为0.5°乘以0.5°。数据集可为中亚主要分布式水循环模拟、水资源供给和开发利用分析等提供基础数据支撑。

Dataset of Agricultural Water Resource Supply, Development and Utilization Potential in the Aral Sea Basin, Central Asia adopts a coupled multi-process simulation approach for distributed watershed water cycle. It calculates precipitation and runoff depth at the sub-basin scale of major Central Asian river basins respectively, and estimates future agricultural water resource supply in Central Asia. The study area covers three major basins, namely the Irtysh River, Syr Darya, and Amu Darya, accounting for 36% of the total area of Central Asia. A total of 1100 sub-basins are divided, and the HEQM model, a distributed water cycle model considering glacial, snow and freeze-thaw processes, is constructed. For driving the historical meteorological data of the model, a compressed sensing-based meteorological data fusion method in the Fourier coefficient domain is adopted to fuse NECP and ECMWF data, producing long-term daily precipitation and temperature data from 1901 to 2014 with high spatiotemporal resolution (0.45°). Additionally, the annual runoff data series from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) (including data from 22 stations during 1940–2000) are used for parameter calibration and validation of the HEQM model, enabling accurate simulation of water resource changes in the study area. On this basis, the median of daily precipitation and temperature data series from 5 GCM models under the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) is used to construct future climate sequences, which drive the calibrated HEQM model to estimate the agricultural water resource development and utilization potential of the basins under different future emission scenarios. The dataset provides data for three historical periods: 2000s (2000–2004), 2010s (2005–2009), and 2015s (2010–2014), as well as two future periods under two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5: 2040s (2040–2070) and 2070s (2071–2099), with a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°. This dataset can provide basic data support for relevant studies in Central Asia including distributed water cycle simulation, water resource supply analysis and development and utilization potential assessment.