Replication Data for: Exposure to Discretionary Arrests Increases Support for Anti-Police Protests

The legitimacy of the state rests on individuals' perceptions of fairness when interacting with state institutions and state agents. The police as an institution and as individual agents have wide latitude to detain and use force against individuals. We argue that encounters with state bureaucracy and civil servants, specifically the police, can generate individual-level grievances against the state, and that these grievances make it more likely an individual participates in protest against the state. We study support for and the legitimacy of policing in the context of the anti-police protests in Baltimore, MD following the death of Freddie Gray in April, 2015. Using data from police records and social media, we show that individuals with higher exposure to discretionary arrests --- arrests that are potentially viewed as illegitimate or arbitrary --- are more likely to support protests against the police. In contrast, we demonstrate that exposure to arrests for major crimes such as murder does not follow the same pattern. Thus, support for the police as an institution varies systematically with exposure to arbitrary and capricious encounters with police agents. As these grievance generating encounters become more widespread, we expect to see increased protests against the police and further erosion in support of the police as an institution. Alternatively, shifting institutional resources to focus on major crimes and limiting the discretionary authority of police agents when interacting with the public may help to repair the legitimacy of policing institutions over the long term.国家合法性的根基，在于个体在与国家机构及国家公务人员互动过程中对公平性的感知。警察作为一类执法机构与个体警务人员，拥有对个体实施羁押、使用武力的广泛自由裁量权限。我们提出，与国家官僚体系及公职人员——尤其是警务人员——的接触会催生个体针对国家的不满情绪，而此类不满情绪将提升个体参与反国家抗议活动的概率。本研究以2015年4月弗雷迪·格雷（Freddie Gray）死亡事件后，美国马里兰州巴尔的摩市爆发的反警察抗议活动为背景，探讨民众对警务工作的支持度与警务合法性。通过整合警方记录与社交媒体数据，我们发现：接触更多由自由裁量权作出的逮捕（即可能被认定为不合法或任意性的逮捕）的个体，更倾向于支持反警察抗议活动。与之形成对照的是，接触针对重罪（如谋杀）的逮捕行为则未呈现出相同的关联模式。由此可见，民众对警察机构的支持度，会随其与警务人员发生任意且反复无常的互动经历而呈现系统性差异。随着这类催生不满情绪的互动愈发普遍，我们预计针对警察的抗议活动将持续增多，民众对警察机构的支持度也将进一步下滑。另一方面，将警务资源转向聚焦重罪打击，并限制警务人员在与公众互动时的自由裁量权，或有助于长期修复警务机构的合法性。