Impact of adopting improved Arabica varieties on the livelihood of organic coffee producers’ of Ethiopia: Continuous treatment approach

The study evaluated the impact of adopting improved coffee Arabica on organic coffee producers’ households’ livelihoods by employing data obtained from 120 coffee producer households in the Gedeo zone. The generalised propensity-score matching methodology is used to analyse the data. The approach was used to match families with similar variables and varying levels of enhanced Arabica coffee adoption intensity. The technique proved efficient in elucidating non-linear causal links between adoption intensities, dosages, and outcome variables. The average dose-response or impact function was calculated by averaging consumer expenditure, household per capita income, and calorie intake per AE at various levels of adoption intensities. The result showed that initially, coffee production had a negative impact on kilocalories per adult equivalent (AE) but turned positive following an adoption dose that reached the optimum. The improved Arabica coffee varieties’ optimal adoption dose is 71.42%, and the equivalent annual household calorie consumption is 2,384.80 kilocalories per AE. However, the impact of coffee Arabica adoption on consumption expenditure was initially positive, but it turned negative after the adoption dose reached its optimum. The level of optimum adoption is 28.41, and the annual household consumption expenditure was 13704 Ethiopian Birr. Furthermore, at an optimum level of 83.66%, the intensity of adoption and income of coffee producers had a positive impact. In this context, policies that promote the efficiency of coffee production and minimize the barriers to farmer adoption provide the most optimal land allocation for improved technology and, in doing so, improve the lives of households.

本研究以埃塞俄比亚吉多区（Gedeo zone）120户有机阿拉比卡咖啡（Coffee Arabica）种植农户的调研数据为基础，评估了改良阿拉比卡咖啡种植对农户家庭生计的影响。研究采用广义倾向得分匹配法（generalised propensity-score matching）对数据进行分析，该方法通过匹配特征变量相近但改良阿拉比卡咖啡种植强度存在差异的农户，能够有效阐明种植强度、施用量与结果变量间的非线性因果关联。本研究在不同种植强度水平下，以成人当量（AE）为基准，对农户消费支出、家庭人均收入以及成人当量口径下的人均热量摄入进行平均测算，得到平均剂量-响应（影响）函数。研究结果显示，初始阶段咖啡种植对成人当量人均千卡热量摄入存在负向影响，但当种植强度达到最优阈值后，该影响转为正向。改良阿拉比卡咖啡品种的最优种植强度为71.42%，此时家庭年均成人当量口径下的人均热量摄入可达2384.80千卡。不过，阿拉比卡咖啡种植对家庭消费支出的影响则呈现相反趋势：初始阶段为正向影响，当种植强度达到最优阈值后转为负向影响，该最优种植强度为28.41，对应家庭年均消费支出为13704埃塞俄比亚比尔。此外，当种植强度达到83.66%的最优水平时，种植强度对咖啡种植户的收入产生正向影响。据此，旨在提升咖啡生产效率、降低农户采纳改良技术门槛的政策，能够为改良技术优化土地配置提供最优路径，进而改善农户家庭生计水平。