Population-Based Projection of Vision-Related Disability in Australia 2020 – 2060: Prevalence, Causes, Associated Factors and Demand for Orientation and Mobility Services

To project the prevalence, causes, associated factors of vision-related disability and demand for orientation and mobility (O&M) services in Australia from 2020 to 2060. The age-specific prevalence and main causes of vision-related disability were estimated based on primary data of 74,862 participants in 2015 Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify associated factors for the outcome variables including vision-related disability, cataract, macular degeneration and glaucoma. Future prevalence of vision-related disability and demand for O&M services were forecasted using the population projections by the Australian Bureau of Statistics through 2060. The main causes of vision-related disability are non-specific sight loss, cataracts, macular degeneration and glaucoma. Health-related associations for vision-related disability are older age, having a history of stroke, having diabetes, depression, heart disease and hearing impairment. The number of Australians with vision-related disability (283,650, 1.10%) and demand for O&M services (123,317, 0.48%) in 2020 will increase to 559,161 (1.38%) and 237,694 (0.59%) respectively in 2060. The number of people with vision-related disability and in need of O&M services in Australia will grow exponentially over the coming decades. General health promotion and specific strategies of early detection and timely treatments of the major eye diseases may ameliorate the trend in vision-related disability.

本数据集旨在预测2020至2060年澳大利亚视力相关残疾（vision-related disability）的患病率、病因、相关影响因素，以及定向与移动（Orientation and Mobility，简称O&M）服务的需求情况。本研究基于2015年残疾、老龄化与护理者调查（2015 Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers）中74862名受访者的一手数据，估算了视力相关残疾的年龄别患病率与主要病因。通过逻辑回归分析，识别了包括视力相关残疾、白内障（cataract）、黄斑变性（macular degeneration）及青光眼（glaucoma）在内的结局变量的相关影响因素。研究依托澳大利亚统计局（Australian Bureau of Statistics）截至2060年的人口预测数据，对2020至2060年澳大利亚视力相关残疾患病率与O&M服务需求进行了预测。视力相关残疾的主要病因包括非特异性视力丧失、白内障、黄斑变性及青光眼。与视力相关残疾相关的健康关联因素包括高龄、卒中病史、糖尿病、抑郁症、心脏病与听力损伤。2020年澳大利亚视力相关残疾患者数量为283650例（占总人口1.10%），O&M服务需求为123317例（占比0.48%）；预计到2060年，这两项数据将分别增长至559161例（1.38%）与237694例（0.59%）。未来数十年间，澳大利亚视力相关残疾患者及O&M服务需求群体规模将呈指数级增长。开展全民健康促进，以及针对主要眼部疾病的早期筛查与及时治疗专项策略，或可缓解视力相关残疾的增长趋势。