Supplementary Material for: A Predictive Microsimulation Model to Estimate the Clinical Relevance of Reducing Alcohol Consumption in Alcohol Dependence

<b><i>Background:</i></b> Alcohol consumption is one of the most
important factors for disease and disability in Europe. In clinical
trials, nalmefene has resulted in a significant reduction in the number
of heavy-drinking days (HDDs) per month and total alcohol consumption
(TAC) among alcohol-dependent patients versus placebo. <b><i>Methods:</i></b>
A microsimulation model was developed to estimate alcohol-attributable
diseases and injuries in patients with alcohol dependence and to explore
the clinical relevance of reducing alcohol consumption. <b><i>Results:</i></b>
For all diseases and injuries considered, the number of events
(inpatient episodes) increased with the number of HDDs and TAC per year.
The model predicted that a reduction of 20 HDDs per year would result
in 941 fewer alcohol-attributable events per 100,000 patients, while a
reduction in intake of 3,000 g/year of pure alcohol (ethanol) would
result in 1,325 fewer events per 100,000 patients. <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> The potential gains of reducing consumption in alcohol-dependent patients were considerable.