Comparing filters and a non-mechanistic forecasting machine.

The different filter configurations include all filters off, state-only filters and dual (state and parameter) filters enabled. The non-mechanistic forecast is provided by the Gaussian Process Model Regression (GPMR). In all but one case, the dual UKF based on the ultradian model provides the most accurate forecast—although model averaging in Table 4 provides an even more accurate forecast. While the GPMR does have a potentially useful MSE, it is not as useful for tracking the mean glucose state because it is trained only on glucose measurements surrounding meal times.